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Good evening all.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD spiked lower this afternoon and almost hit the lower trend channel line at the low.
The price has recovered slightly from the drop this evening.
This is where the rubber meets the road for EURUSD,
if the price bounces impulsively off the trend channel and a push back above 1.1117,
that action will favor the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
we may finally see a move in favor of the alternate count.
a spike higher off the trend line and a break of 1.1117 will be enough to trigger the alternate count.

A break of support at 1.0982 will favor the main count.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable is correcting slightly today without any meaningful move lower off Wednesday’s high.
This action favors a correction within wave ‘c’ at the moment.
Wave ‘c’ should continue higher tomorrow towards resistance at 1.3283,
That will complete the larger wave (ii).
And at that point I will begin to look lower again into wave (iii) down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to turn higher again.
1.2960 must hold.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY took a dive lower overnight in wave (c) of [ii]
which ruled out last nights short term count.
The price actually hit the previous target area at wave (iv) blue this evening,
and price is now rebounding again off the low at 109.26.

Todays action has possibly completed a expanded flat correction in wave [ii] green.
The price must now hold above the low at 109.26 as wave (i) of [iii] develops.
An impulsive rally off the low which creates a bullish higher low at wave (ii) will signal that wave [iii] up has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to continue higher in five waves soon.
109.26 must hold in the short term.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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Of course it is tempting to jump onto the bearish boat this evening after a small selloff today.
but even though the decline today looks impulsive,
the minimum condition for wave (i) down has not been met yet.
That minimum level is;
a break of the previous wave ‘iv’ at 28884.

I am looking for a turn lower into wave (i) for sure,
but until we get a break of that minor support level I will hold off on wave (i) down for now.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if this evening rally can hold below the recent high at 29373.
A correction higher at this point will favor the bearish count.
Watch for a break of 28880 to signal wave (i) has begun.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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GOLD is still inching higher today against the backdrop of a falling stock market.
The price has failed to break above 1568 yet,
so I have kept the main wave count for now,
which calls for a break of 1535 and another drop into wave ‘c’ at about 1515 or so.
A break above that level in an impulsive fashion will tip the balance in favor of the bullish count.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if the wave ‘b’ high at 1568 holds.
A turn back below Tuesdays low at 1546 will signal wave ‘c’ has begun.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Well so much for a larger second wave correction developing.
The decline in price continued today and hit a low at 54.78.
Todays low actually broke the previous wave (b) level at 55.31.
This level was the initial target for wave (i) down a few weeks back.
So, wave (b) has offered some support this evening,
which was enough to cause a slight rebound off the low.

Now we have a question to answer,
Is the recent decline the beginning of wave (iii) down as shown.
Or is this whole move off the high,
actually the larger wave [i] down now complete, as per the alternate count.

The correction that follows the decline from this point on
should give us an indication as to which count is more fitting.

Tomorrow;
watch for a corrective rally to begin in wave ‘ii’ at least,
which should reach up to initial resistance at 57.40.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The small drop off the recent high at 3336 into todays lows is in fave waves.
This can be interpreted as the beginning of an impulse wave lower,
or,
it can simply be the final leg down in a 3,3,5 expanded flat correction,
which you can see shown within the box.

If this rebound off the low breaks to a new high,
that will trigger the alternate count for wave (v) circled in red.

If the rebound only creates a lower high below 3336,
that will favor the idea of a top in place at wave ‘ii’ as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 3336 to hold and wave ‘ii’ to complete a three wave correction to a lower high.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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It is possible that silver has now completed a five wave decline in wave (c) of [ii] at todays lows.
The price has hit the 50% retracement level of wave [i],
and the price is rebounding slightly off that level this evening.

Todays low reached 17.59,
so if we see this level hold and a rise in five waves that breaks above 18.16 again.
That will be the first signal that wave [iii] up is getting started.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the low at 17.59 to hold.
Wave (i) of [iii] must break above 18.16 again to signal the rally has begun.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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Despite the wave count expecting a large decline into a third wave,
the 10YR note refuses to sell off in any meaningful way yet.

The price is holding below the wave [ii] high at 130.18.
And the rally into that high is in three waves as shown.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) came close this evening but stopped short at 130.00 flat.
And so far the price is declining back below the 130.00 handle again.

The short term count is saved for the moment,
but the price must begin a larger sustained decline soon in order to stick with the bearish outlook.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin to fall again back below 128.54 to remain focused on the downside.

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