Good evening all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Indecisive action leads the way for EURUSD today.
So there is no real change in the outlook.
I am still looking for a substantial move in a clear direction
in order to rule out one of the wave counts shown on the short term chart.
The price has come to a halt this wee after falling in three waves off the high at 1.1239.
So I am leaning towards the alternate count as it stands.
A break above 1.1171 will trigger that count.
Tomorrow;
It is a patience game at the moment.
Wave ‘iii’ down is still a possibility,
so a break of 1.1000 again will favor the main wave count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable continued higher today to break Friday’s interim high at 1.3120,
this action is viewed as wave ‘c’ of (ii) now in force.
And the wave count calls for wave ‘c’ hit the minimum target at 1.3283 over the next few days.
Once this three wave correction in wave (ii) is complete,
then we can look for wave (iii) down to begin.
Wave (iii) will likely start next week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue up to target.
The low at 1.2960 must hold for this count to remain valid.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has hit a decision point today.
The action this week is suggesting that wave [ii] may be complete already.
Wave [ii] is an expanded flat correction.
And wave (c) of [ii] has broken the low of wave (a),
which is the minimum target area.
Wave (c) reached 109.75 and todays trade is now higher off that low.
Tomorrow;
So the question is this, is wave (i) of [iii] now underway?
If we see a further rally tomorrow that breaks 110.28,
that will signal wave (i) is underway.
The low of wave [ii] at 109.75 must hold.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
As they say; sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing!
The DOW is holding below the high at 29373 so far this week.
I don’t see a five wave pattern off the high yet.
And there is a chance that the action this week is in-fact a triangle,
so I will just have to wait for some more downside action
to tilt the balance in favor of an impulse wave lower in wave (i).
A break of 28884 at the previous triangle wave ‘iv’ is the ideal path from here.
And until that happens,
we will just have to hold tight and see.
Tomorrow;
Watch for an acceleration lower to break 28884.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is also holding up surprisingly well at the moment.
Although it is expected to fall further,
wave ‘c’ down has not taken over just yet.
Only a break of the 1535 low will confirm wave ‘c’.
The alternate short term count views the recent low at 1535 as the completed wave (ii),
although this is a low probability at the moment,
if we see a push back above 1568 again,
the odds will increase for that more bullish count.
Tomorrow;
watch for a break of 1535 to confirm wave ‘c’ and to rule out that alternate count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude fell again today to break initial support at 57.42.
Although this is exactly what I want to see happen in wave (iii) down.
I don’t think we are done with wave (ii) just yet.
The drop off the wave ‘a’ high is still in three waves.
So it is possible that todays decline is wave ‘b’ of a larger expanded flat wave (ii).
If that is the case,
then wave ‘c’ will return higher starting tomorrow.
And wave ‘c’ should hit the wave ‘a’ high at 59.64 to complete the pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a low to form overnight to complete wave ‘b’.
A push above 58.78 again will signal wave ‘c’ has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It is hard to read anything into the action this week so far.
Except for the fact that the rally has decelerated to a halt today.
This deceleration plays into the larger momentum divergence on the 4hr chart.
Where we can see that ever since last September,
each successive new price high,
failed to break to a new momentum high.
All this points to a very weak leadership within the rally.
And it will lead to a complete failure of this rally also.
Tomorrow;
Price is falling this evening,
so lets see if this continues for the rest of the week.
A five wave decline below 3278 will favor the bearish outlook.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is near to completing five waves down in wave (c) of [ii] now.
The sideways action over the last few sessions is in three waves.
And this can be viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (c).
With one last drop into wave ‘v’ left to complete the pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to push into 17.50 again to complete wave [ii].
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds seem to have completed a larger three wave move in wave (ii) now.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) is close to a five wave form,
although a touch of the trend channel line at 129.70
would be a nice way to cap off the pattern.
Tomorrow;
If the price fails at the trend channel line and then turns lower to break 128.89 again,
that will signal that wave ‘i’ of (iii) has begun.
130.18 must hold.