Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

I am taking a risk here by updating early tonight.
The day has been relatively quiet and I have been waiting for something to happen that looks like a no-show!
It seems the largest ever options expiry day has actually very little effect on the market at all.
I may have to eat my words here,
but I suspect that because over 50% of options traded are actually end of day options,
then may actually cause the market to stop moving completely as the range of strikes gets tighter because of the short dated nature of the option.
Maybe I will be proved wrong on that,
but I have noticed this over the last few op ex days.
Is options day now a nothing burger?
We will see.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is holding the lower high below 1.0886 again.
This action has not added much to the count here.
But the fact that the high is holding do far is allowing for a turn to develop at least.

Monday;
I want to seee three waves down to complete early next week so we can kick off this correction into wave [ii].
A decline into wave (a) should drop back into the 1.05 range again.
And I am keeping an eye on that left shoulder at 1.07 as initial support.
A break of that level will suggest wave (a) of [ii] has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is still showing a possible three waves up to a small lower high below wave [b] at 1.2434.
The short term count holds for now,
and a five wave decline into wave (i) of [c] is still my favored outcome here.

The high at wave ‘A’ is only a few pips above at 1.2445.
So I know this is a tight margin for error here.
That wave ‘A’ high can break if wave ‘B’ red is tracing an expanded flat correction.
I would prefer that level to hold,
but the count will not be completely invalidated if that high does break.

Monday;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to fall again and trace out five waves down to confirm that main count.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should drop back into the 1.22 level again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The action this week in USDJPY is holding off the lows at wave [v] but I am not convinced yet that the final low is in.
That whipsaw reversal from earlier this week is sowing doubts now.
And until we get a break above initial resistance at 132.80 again then I will have to remain skeptical.

I am watching another count for wave ‘C’ of (4) that has potential.
It involves a five wave drop in wave ‘A’ rather than a three wave pattern that I have shown on the 4hr chart.
If that alternate is correct,
then we will see another low form in wave [v] of ‘C’ as shown before any reversal happens into wave (5).

I have shown that alternate count on the 4hr chart for clarity.

Monday;
Watch for the low at 127.21 to hold.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count for wave [v] green.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am watching a possible fourth wave correctoin tracing out over the last few sessions.
The high today may have completed a small expanded flat correction.
And if that is true,
then wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ should drop to a new low near 32800 on Monday.

The action on Monday will sort out the detaisl here for wave ‘i’.
Even if we do see a new low to break 32800,
then I suspect that will lead to a alrger correction higher into wave ‘ii’ as shown.
So the first half of next week is looking higher in wave ‘ii’ if all goes to plan.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is lurking in the shadows though.
And that wave should bring an acceleration lower towards 30000 again if this count holds up.
So there is a growing probability here that we are entering into a larger degree third wave down,
and this si coming our way soon.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘4’ and ‘5’ to complete near that support at wave ‘b’ at 32800.
Next week is lining up to take that first step into the third of a third wave down that I have been talking about for a while now.
Its going to get exciting then.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The weakness today suggests at least a short term top in the pattern for wave (v).
There is growing divergence between this rally and its momentum over the last few weeks again,
and I know this will lead to a decline eventually.
The market has not taken the first step lower to reveal that turn yet.
And so I must continue to track here until that happens.
I know we are well overdue a seriour correction now.
And wave (a) of [ii] should begin that reversal process next week.

Monday;
WAtch for wave ‘v’ of (v) of [i] to close out and reverse.
A drop back below wave ‘iv’ at 1895 again will signal wave ‘a’ of (a) of [ii] is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

It is a case of – the high is holding so far, but I can’t guarantee anything yet!
Today the price has come close to breaking to a new high,
but so far it has failed.
I can still label this as wave ‘ii’ of (i) for now.
Obviously a break of 82.64 again will rule this count out.

Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to turn lower immediately.
the high must hold for this count to remain valid.
A break of 78.00 again will for the wave (i) of [iii] idea.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

An evening rally in the S&P has forced me to label wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ now complete.
The high at wave ‘ii’ must hold in order to stick with this bearish stance on Monday.
But at the moment,
this is just a simple retracement higher in wave ‘2’ and wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ should begin on Monday.

I would like to see a break of 3870 again to signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ has begun.
But I will just have to wait and see on that front.

There is of course another more bearish possibility here also.
The initial drop off that high at wave ‘ii’ pink may only be the first step down in wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’.
That possibility suggests an even larger decline is ahead of us over the coming weeks.
And I can’t rule that out either.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to hold below the wave ‘ii’ high at 4016.
A break of 3870 again will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I was happy with the action this week until that sharp rally yesterday!
I’m afraid I am going to have to repeat myself here now and say that I am not sure if this second wave is done yet.
A drop back below the 23.00 handle again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.
But we could also see a larger flat correction take place in wave ‘ii’ over the coming week.
And that will give us another sideways ranging trade again before any significant decline begins.

Monday;
I am happy to see the price is finding resistance at the 62% retracement level again.
This fact offers support to the idea that this is only a corrective retracement and not a new bull run.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold,
and progress lower into wave ‘iii’ over the coming week to reinforce this wave count.
If the support at 23.00 does not break next week,
then I will have to reconsider my whole thesis here.