Hi folks.
It’s a holiday in the U.S today so the market was slow, I will just give a quick run down on the chart to setup tomorrow.
This is worth a read tonight – https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/never-seen-market-complacency-everyone-goes-even-more-all
here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is slightly lower after a light session today.
The wave count is still in the balance between the main and alternate counts.
Both counts were calling for this decline of late,
so both counts can still be valid.
A break above 1.1171 again will trigger the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
watch for the price to at least fall into the declining trend channel
in either wave ‘iii’ or wave [c].
That will happen at about 1.1035 or so.
If the price reacts higher off that channel,
that will favor the alternate count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is still waiting for a rally in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
The price is holding above the wave ‘b’ low today,
although we came close to breaking earlier.
A break of the wave ‘b’ low does not invalidate the count by any means,
but it will probably indicate a different pattern is unfolding for wave (ii).
Fridays high lies at 1.3120,
if that level breaks it will be a good sign that wave ‘c’ will continue up to the upper trend line.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to begin with a break of Fridays highs.
The three wave correction is not yet complete in wave (ii).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is has failed to drop into wave (c) yet,
but I am fairly sure we will see that happen soon.
I have shown a slightly different interpretation of the short term action today.
This involves a larger ‘b’ wave breaking out into a three wave rally to a new high.
It is possible wave ‘b’ of (b) is now tracing out a triangle,
and then wave ‘c’ could bring us up to the upper trend line at 110.60 to complete the pattern in wave (b).
A drop below 109.77 will signal wave (C) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to complete tomorrow at 110.60.
and wave (c) to begin by early wednesday with a target at 109.43.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
With the market closed today there is very little to say regarding the short term pattern.
The high of wave (v) is expected this week.
This rally has extended beyond what I though was humanly possible!
But all good things must come to an end.
In general I am looking for a few things.
The initial move lower into wave (i) should break the low of the triangle wave ‘iv’ at 28880.
The decline off the high must be in five waves to indicate a trend change,
and a break of 28000 after a five wave decline will be a huge signal that a major top is in for the market.
Tomorrow;
The upper trend channel line is still a possibility in wave (v),
so lets wait and see again for a reaction back into the smaller channel.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold should be completing wave ‘b’ now after a three wave expanded flat correction higher.
Wave ‘c’ down is set to drop back into the 62% retracement level at 1511.
The price will then have a completed three wave correction in place,
and then we can concentrate on the rally in wave (iii) to come.
There is still a small chance that wave (ii) is already complete as per the alternate count.
A break of 1435 again will rule out that alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a turn lower into wave ‘c’ that breaks 1535 at a minimum.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is still moving in a correction higher in wave (ii) grey.
And wave (ii) is likely to remain in force for a few more days to complete.
Wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ are likely complete,
with wave ‘c’ left.
That small spike higher on Friday night has raised a possible alternate count circled in red is possible,
But normally I would expect a rise into the 38% Fib level at a minimum in a second wave.
So this is a low probability count right now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete by Wednesday evening at the latest.
The 38% retracement level lies at 60.49,
so lets see how the price reacts to that level this week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is approaching a major trend channel line also this week.
Wave (v) of [v] is about to touch the upper trend line
and this will complete the larger wave ‘5’ blue.
Wave ‘5’ blue began back at the October lows last year and carried the market 500 point higher.
Of course everyone now expect this rally to continue without interruption.
Typical fifth wave exuberance!
Tomorrow;
Wave (i) down should fall back below the 3180 level at the previous wave (iv) grey.
This is the next major move I am expecting.
Lets see if we can track a five wave move lower beginning this week.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has topped out in wave (b) also today.
Wave (b) was a three wave expanded flat correction.
and wave (c) down should now fall in five waves into about 17.40 over the next few days.
This action will complete the larger wave [ii] green,
once this completes, we can then concentrate on the next leg up in wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to begin with a drop back below 17.79 at the wave (a) low.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The Bond market was closed also today.
In general this week I am looking for a five wave decline to continue in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 128.54.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 129.42.