[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good evening folks,
And welcome to the end of another trading week.
Below is a chart of the TD Ameritrade imx,
Which is the 'investor movement index' and is compiled by TD from their own client data.
TD, serves the individual investor,
So the index is a good measure of the average man on the street,
and his/her appetite for risk.
They use; data including holdings/positions, trading activity.
So, It tracks the inflows and outflows from client accounts every month.
As you can see,
This index has been making new all time highs consistantly for the last 15 months straight.
December ended at the high of 8.53.
The number is not significant,
Rather the absolute shift in action towards the super bullish end of the spectrum in such a quick time frame.
TD ameritrade is quick to point out;
"The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume"
I beg to differ on that score,
This index should indeed be used as an indicator, of how insanely bullish the individual investor has become.
And so far in history,
The individual investor is exactly wrong in his investement decisions,
at exactly the wrong time.
Lets file this under " another nail in the coffin ".[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: N/A.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
The correction in a possible wave (ii) brown developed further today.
I have shown an expanded flat correction into the low of the day.
This should be followed by a rally next week in wave (iii) brown.
1.2163 remains key support in the short term.
Any break below that level will mean wave [iv] green has extended to a larger complex pattern.
For next week;
The outlook is bullish in the short term
With a possibility that the price will reach 1.2500 in wave [v] green.
1.2163 must first hold on monday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable looks like it is also creating a flat wave structure in wave 'iv' pink.
The price declined in a possible wave 'c' grey today.
support lies at 1.3775,
the previous fourth wave.
The setup is similar also,
With wave 'v' likely to begin next week and the target in the high 1.40's to complete.
And at that point this whole correction phase could be complete.
If the current wave count is correct,
Then we will see a large decline back into the long-term trend in wave (5).
For next week;
Wave 'v' should begin after a brief decline.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY extended downwards throughout the day.
support at 110.18 is the immediate level of interest for the overnight trade on Monday.
And a break of 111.48 will give the bullish case a big boost.
In general I am looking for five waves up in pink to signify that the market is turning back into the larger uptrend.
When that happens we will be on the verge of a large bull run in wave [iii].
and a low risk opportunity should present itself at that time.
For monday;
watch for 110.18 to hold and a rally in wave '3' to begin.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The price continued to contract in range again today.
This is very much like a contracting triangle wave '4' is forming.
And once complete,
Wave '5' blue will rally to the initial target at 26346.
There is a possibility that wave '4' is complete at the low of the session.
So wave '5' could begin out of the open on Monday.
For Monday;
A break above 26151 will signal that wave '5' blue is underway.
Next week could be pivotal again,
A rally to the upper trendline will complete the larger 5 wave pattern
And at that point I will look for the beginning of an impulsive decline again.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD has risen timidly over the last few days.
The rise is also in three waves.
This is another point in favor of the alternate wave count, shown circled in red.
1324.85 cash, is the level to watch,
A break below that level will trigger the alternate wave count.
For Monday;
Watch 1324.85.
If it breaks, another bullish opportunity will arrive when wave [ii] is complete.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude broke out of the triangle pattern to form a more complex wave [iv] brown.
that new interpretation shows wave (b) as a contracting triangle
and wave (c) as a possible three wave decline off the wave (b) high.
This correction should complete with a further decline into the lower trend channel line.
The low $62 range is likely.
And nearby support lies at 61.08.
For Monday;
This correction should complete quite quickly on Monday.
At that point I will be looking for a minor higher low
And a bullish opportunity in wave [v] brown.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]That concludes this week of corrections!
God's speed to you all this weekend.
Until Monday,
Adios Amigos![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]