[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good night to all.
Interesting comments from one of the biggest market actors in the world today.
Pimco's global economic adviser Joachim Fels was out with some pretty bearish comments on the state of the equity markets.
Here's the killer line:
“The fact that the fear is gone is the main reason why we should be worried,”
This is most definitely an outsider view in terms of the financial industries main players.
And it is worth sitting up to listen when this guy speaks.
And of course, he is correct.
Looks like I am not the only one who is worried about the coming crash then.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: Retail Sales m/m.
JPY: N/A.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD may have completed wave [iv] green at today's low.
The decline off the high is in three waves so far.
And the market has rebounded this evening in a possible wave [v] green.
The session low lies at 1.2164,
So the price must not decline below this level.
A break above 1.2322 will confirm that wave [v] has begun.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a higher low above 1.2164 and a rally in a possible wave (iii) brown.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I have switched to the alternate short term wave count in cable.
Last nights sharp decline triggered this change.
The large rally this week is now viewed as wave 'iii' of (c).
Wave 'iv' is underway as a possible three wave zigzag correction lower.
With initial support at 1.3775 the likely target.
Wave 'v' should carry the price up towards 1.4056,
this level is where wave wave 'v' pink will reach equality with wave 'i' pink.
for tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iv' to complete,
Wave 'v' should begin on Monday towards the new target.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
The action off the low at 110.18 is encouraging so far.
The price has declined in three waves off today's high at 111.48.
A further rally above 111.48 will add weight to the bullish setup.
Remember that I am looking for a completed five wave rally in wave 'i' brown,
followed by a three wave decline in wave 'ii' which will complete a bullish Elliott wave signal
and a good opportunity on the long side given the potential target above 125.00 in wave [iii].
For tomorrow;
Watch for a bullish break of 111.48 in wave '3' pink.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
Since this time last year, the DOW has risen 6300 points!
The Daily chart gives you a nice perspective on the vertical nature of this rally.
And of course the idea of a new bear market is very far from investors minds right now.
The Daily chart shows a flat momentum setup.
While on the 4hr chart has in fact diverged bearishly again.
The short term chart shows a possible interpretation for the sideways action over the last few days.
A rise in three waves this week suggests a possible triangle is unfolding.
If this is correct,
then the price will stage another rally in wave '5' blue into the upper trendline.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a continued price contraction in wave '4' blue.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD has stalled today in corrective fashion.
The price action is strongly hinting at the alternate wave count after today.
If the price breaks below 1309,
The alternate wave count will be confirmed.
And the price will likely drop into the 50% retracement level at 1290 again.
For tomorrow;
expect to see a further decline into support at 1309.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
I have settled on a contracting triangle idea for wave [iv] brown today.
After a week of going nowhere fast,
and the fact that the individual waves look to be in three waves
all counts in favor of a triangle correction.
The potential from here is still undecided,
The two potential targets to the upside are 66.37 and the more bullish 70.00 high.
The latter will happen if wave [v] brown extends its structure.
So,
Again we stand at a bullish juncture in crude with potential for a minimum rally to 66.00 region.
For tomorrow;
The low of wave [iv] stands at 63.47,
The price must stay above this level for this interpretation to remain valid.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]