[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good evening people!
Its raining bullish sentiment everywhere,
From individual investors to professional fund managers.
They are all out on a limb chasing a vertical market!
I have three stories from CNBS (c) today!
And these should all be taken as one narrative from three perspectives.
First:
Stock funds rake in $24 billion in the first week of 2018, sixth-biggest inflow ever
and last but not least!
Stock market optimism from pros reaches highest level in nearly 32 years
SO,
Lets round up that series of bullish stories,
The average retail investor is buy stocks at a rate an impressive rate,
Fund managers cash to asset ratio has reached a five year low as they dive into the stock rally,
And
Market optimism is at a 32 year high!
Here are a few things people will be screaming when the whole bull market falls down around their ears....
No-one could possibly see this coming,
Everything was going so great,
there were no warning signs!
This market is a massive land mine,
And the whole world is dancing on it![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: German Buba President Weidmann Speaks.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
EURUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD reached higher in wave 'v' pink overnight,
And then declined in a possible wave (a) of [iv] this morning.
This evenings rebound is labelled as wave (b) brown.
Wave (c) should follow tomorrow in a possible flat correction wave [iv].
Wave [iv] green should complete above 1.1961, the high of the previous wave [i] green,
in order for this wave count to remain valid.
For tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to complete in a three wave pattern.
support lies at 1.2092.
A decline below 1.1961 will signal that the rally is in fact over.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GBPUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable seems to be extending higher in wave '5' grey.
meaning wave '5' grey will split out into a larger five wave pattern itself.
If this is the case,
Then the next likely target lies at 1.4157.
Where wave (c) brown reaches 161.8% of wave (a) brown.
The alternate wave count is also possible,
It shows wave (c) brown as a possible five wave pattern,
And the price is now rising in wave (iii) pink.
Either way, 1.4157 is the most likely target ahead.
For tomorrow;
watch for a continued rally in wave '5' grey,
The price must not break 1.3836 in this scenario.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
USDJPY
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY came within 6 pips of reaching the 61.8% retracement level
as shown on the short term chart.
The low of the day was 110.18, and the Fib target lies at 110.12.
the short term momentum is now bullish again registering a bullish centreline cross today.
4hr momentum has also bottomed and diverged higher.
There is a real possibility that wave [ii] grey is now complete
The price should turn higher in wave [iii] grey soon.
For tomorrow;
Watch for the formation of a five wave move to the upside in a possible wave 'i' brown.
A break of 112.00 would be a bullish sign.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
"Dow hits 26000 milestone as earnings optimism feeds rally"
This headline should be corrected to simply read,
"optimism feeds rally" and no more.
The DOW rallied above the all time high again today.
The upside target at 26350 is now a foregone conclusion.
this level is where wave 'v' pink reaches equality with wave 'i' pink.
Every market commentator and participant is shouting the merits of this rally.
even though the market is poised to turn down in a huge way!
As the cyclical rally tops out and the cyclical decline is about to begin.
the current projections for 'expected 12 yr returns' is now below 0% according to John Hussman.
This reading implies that the market will either trade completely flat for the next 12yrs,
Can you see that happen?
OR,
there will be a hugh bear market,
the price will bottom out some where in the 5000 range in my estimation,
and then, a large rally will carry the market back up to the current area again over a 12yr horizon.
The wave count is in complete agreement with the latter interpretation.
For tomorrow;
the next level of significance is 26350.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GOLD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
The decline in price this evening has tilted the odds in favor of the alternate wave count.
This is still shown circled in red.
The price now sits on the lower trendline of the trend channel.
If the decline continues tomorrow,
And the price breaks below 1309, the wave 'iv' low of the previous triangle correction,
Then I will switch to the alternate wave count.
At which point the price will still be poised for a sizable rally in wave [iii].
For tomorrow;
key support lies at 1309, watch for a break below that level.
further support then lies at 1290 in a possible wave [ii].[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
U.S CRUDE OIL
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
The alternate wave count now looks more likely in crude
after an impulsive rally away from support at 63.06.
the price structure better fits the alternate count,
as a running flat correction wave [iv] is less likely than a deep correction in a possible wave (ii).
So the higher target in the $70 region is now very real possible from this point.
for tomorrow;
If we see a higher low above 63.31, it will create a bullish setup for a rally higher in a possible wave (iii)
And a further break of todays high at 64.17 will signal that the rally has begun.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]