Good evening folks.
I hope you survived the day well!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD refuses to confirm either of the wave counts again today.
The action has a slight downside bias but only just,
The market turned lower early in the session but we have retraced most of that decline this evening.
In terms of the short term count,
the action can still be viewed as an ongoing wave ‘iii’ down in pink.
Mondays rise was in three waves which suggests a correction higher.
So I will stick with the idea of a decline into wave (i) for the moment.
Tomorrow;
1.1206 should hold.
Watch for a return lower in wave ‘iii’ of (i) to break 1.1065.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is rising off the low of the session this evening.
This low is labelled wave ‘b’ of a larger wave (ii) correction,
and this evening rise may well be the beginning of wave ‘c’ higher to complete wave (ii) as shown.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘b’ lies at 1.2952,
watch for that level to hold and wave ‘c’ to continue higher in a five wave rally to complete wave (ii).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is stalling out after a sharp rally over the last week.
This rally has a five wave form to it at the moment.
So that suggests wave [i] up is complete at the high of 110.20.
I am expecting a three wave correction over the next week or so,
so todays small decline could be the beginning of that correction in wave [ii].
We will have to see a drop back below 109.42 in wave (a) to confirm wave [ii] has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (a) of [ii] to begin.
This drop can be in three or five waves
depending on the type of correction that will occur.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW reached to a new high today at 29049 so far.
This defines the recent decline on Friday as a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (v).
And today rally is now wave ‘v’ of (v).
After that correction in wave ‘iv’ has cleared up,
I can now see a clear five wave structure in wave (v).
This is another indication of the maturity of this rally.
As each sub wave creates its own completed pattern,
it brings us ever closer to the inevitable end of the line.
There is nothing to work with on the downside yet,
but that is coming soon I have no doubt.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ to hit that upper trend channel line at 29130.
If we get a sharp move lower off that trend channel,
I will take that action as the beginning of wave (i) again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
We had a slight dip below the recent low at 1540 today.
This action triggered the alternate count for gold.
And now I am working with possibly and even more bullish short term count for wave [v] green.
The recent high is now labelled wave (i) of [v],
and the drop off that wave (i) high is regarded as an ongoing wave (ii) of [v].
Wave (ii) should complete a three wave decline soon if wave ‘c’ of (ii) is already underway as shown.
the likely targets for wave (ii) lie between 1530 and 1511 at the 50% and 62% retracement levels.
And a move back off these lows towards 1580 again will be a signal that wave (iii) of [v] has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete before the end of the week.
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ has already been met by todays break of 1540.
So lets see how this plays out tomorrow.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude completed a possible five wave decline in wave ‘v’ of (i) at todays low of 57.73.
The price has risen slightly off that low,
so this is now regarded as wave ‘a’ of (ii) now underway.
Wave ‘a’ of (ii) should push back above 59.40 again,
this is the high of the previous wave ‘iv’ pink.
If that happens,
that will signal wave (ii) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (ii) to continue higher as suggested.
Wave ‘b’ should create a higher low above 57.73 over the coming days.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P created another new high today at 3294 and is now dropping off that high again this evening.
The action over the last few days seems to have created a contracting triangle.
This could be a minor triangle wave ‘iv’ within wave (v).
And todays new high can be viewed as wave ‘v’ of (v).
We will have to see a sharp spike lower over the coming days to confirm this view.
So I will keep an open mind on this one.
Tomorrow;
The main focus is still on the idea of a new five wave structure to the downside.
I remain patiently waiting for that decline to materialize
before we can get to work on identifying a bearish lower high.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver confirmed the move into wave (c) of [ii] today with a break of the wave (a) low at 17.78.
Wave (c) is expected to trace out a five wave decline as shown on the short term chart.
And we may even be dropping into wave ‘v’ of (c) as I write.
Also,
The price has already ready reached the 50% retracement level at todays lows,
so there may not be a whole lot more downside in this correction.
The first signal that wave [iii] up has begun will be a rise back above 18.15 at the wave (b) high.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete with one more drop towards 17.40.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Wave ‘ii’ is unfolding into a larger three wave structure today after a rise back off Mondays low.
It looks like wave ‘ii’ is now tracing out a flat correction,
with an internal 3,3,5 pattern.
Wave ‘ii’ should complete with a touch of the upper trend line at 129.33.
And once that pattern does complete,
then we can look for a sharp drop into wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete .
A break of 128.24 again will signal wave ‘iii’ down has begun.