Good evening to one and all.
I hope you don’t mind if I keep the update a little shorter tonight.
I am ill today and my energy levels are low,
so I need to hit the hay and sleep off this cold that I have brewing!
With the help of God I will be back at it at full steam tomorrow evening.
Ok here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is rising today but the move is not enough to trigger the alternate count for wave (2).
If we see this rise continue tomorrow and we get a break of 1.1206,
that will tilt the odd’s in favor of that alternate count.
The alternate is shown on the 4hr chart circled in red.
And this allows for a three wave rally in wave (2) up to between 1.1500 and 1.1800.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.1206 to hold and wave ‘iii’ down to resume.
I am looking for five waves down in wave (i) to complete this week.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I have switched to the alternate count for cable this evening.
Even though we have seen further declines today,
the action is not impulsive at all to the downside.
the pattern that is unfolding on the short term chart,
fits with a three wave decline in wave ‘b’ of (ii).
Rather than the acceleration into a large third wave as shown previously.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ of (ii) to find a low most likely above the low at 1.2903.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) should rise in five waves back above the wave ‘a’ high at 1.3283 over the next few sessions.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has broken out above the resistance at 109.72 today,
and this action adds weight to the bullish interpretation now.
The fact that price has broken out above the previous wave (D) of the large triangle wave [B].
means the triangle is now complete and we are moving into a new uptrend in USDJPY in wave [C].
I spoke about this longer term count on the weekend video last Saturday.
So check that out to find out a little more.
Tomorrow;
It looks like we are all but done in wave [i] up so I expect wave [ii] to correct lower over the next few days.
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to begin to fall soon,
Wave [ii] should complete in the area of 108.60.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is holding below Last Fridays new high so far today.
The action looks corrective at the moment.
So I have labelled the move off the high as a possible wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to the downside.
This is a speculative count in the short term as it is very early days in a developing trend change,
We will have to see a break of that wave (iv) low at 28120 to really get serious about the downside potential.
But that is my main focus this week.
Tomorrow;
lets see if we can build a five wave decline this week in wave (i).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is pretty flat today
and the price is continuing to hold above the wave (iv) low at 1540 so far.
So we do not have confirmation of either short term count just yet.
I have shown the main alternate count circled in red on the 1hr chart.
A break of 1540 will trigger this count.
And then we can expect wave (ii) to complete later this week.
Before we rally again in wave (iii).
Tomorrow.
Watch for 1540 to hold in order to save the current wave (iv) wave count.
Only a break of 1611 again will signal wave (v) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil dropped again today out of that triangle wave ‘iv’ pattern I spoke about last Friday.
The decline off the high at wave ‘2’ is now very close to completing five waves down.
Price has reached a low of 58.00 again this evening.
The next level of support lies at 57.60,
a break of this level will be a bonus on top of an already solid move back into the down trend.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to complete soon.
Wave (ii) should begin a corrective rally over the next few days
and will likely hit back above 61.00 again in three waves.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Todays rise in the S&P has reached back up to a new all time high again this evening.
The top so far lies at 3284.50.
This rise is all occurring within wave (v) of [v].
And we are very close to wrapping that rally up now.
The DOW has not confirmed the rally today,
which adds a little suspicion into the mix.
I terms of the coming trend change,
I will just have to wait for another move to the downside again
in order to start working on wave [i] down again.
Tomorrow;
This rally in wave (v) should fade out by weeks end I think.
The upper trend channel line will be met at 3300 or there about.
Lets see if we get a rejection in that area tomorrow.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is still holding above the wave (a) low at 17.80 today.
The rise off that low is labelled as wave (b) of [ii] now underway.
This should trace out a three wave rise up to about 18.20,
and then fall again to about 17.20 to complete wave (c) and wave [ii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [ii] to complete in three waves by tomorrow evening.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have completed a three wave rise into wave ‘ii’ pink at Fridays highs.
The price is drifting lower off that level today,
and this could be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ down as shown.
Although The action will have to develop into a more sustained decline tomorrow in order to rule out a larger wave ‘ii’ as shown.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 128.54 to signal wave ‘iii’ down has begun.