Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessings to you all tonight.

Another whipsaw day to add to the litany of days where everything is on the line,
and nothing actually happens.
The cpi came in today and the headline figure was lower than expected,
or at least the rip higher has now officially halted.
I will make a prediction to start the night,
before the end of this year we will see at least one negative print on cpi.
And the screaming will be deafening!

just take a quick look at the rate of change on the housing index below,
notice anything interesting?
You got it,
the last time we broke through the zero line after an expansion cycle was 2006.
the second plunge was Feb 2007,
and by then we were rushing towards recession.
Want to take a guess what happens next??

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD spiked higher into wave ‘v’ of (v) today and we do have a five wave rally now complete off the wave (iv) low.
The price is close to hitting equality between wave (i) and (v) also.
so I think it is a matter of a few days before we turn lower again to begin wave [ii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for this pattern in wave (v) to close out finally,
a break of 1.0600 again will strongly favor wave (a) of [ii] underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable basically achieved nothing today after hitting the 62% retracement level twice no less!
There is a possible five wave pattern in place for wave (c) now,
and just like EURUSD,
I am looking for a top in wave [b] to complete now,
and that reversal into wave [c] to begin.
Five waves down into wave [c] will pull the market back below 1.1500 I suspect.
So lets see if that drop can begin over the next few days.

Tomorrow;
The internal pattern for wave (c) of [b] looks good after todays new high.
Watch for a drop below 1.20 again to signal wave (i) of [c] has begun.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY did make that required decline today,
but the price broke support also and that has invalidated the short term pattern now.
take a look at the 4hr chart again.
I had settled wave ‘C’ of (4) as an ending diagonal a few weeks ago.
This pattern requires each internal wave of wave ‘C’ to trace out three waves.
A low was hit at 129.47.
And then we saw a nice rally out of the low which suggested wave (4) was finally over.

But the decline to a new low has also traced out three waves down here.
So my first though is that the ending diagonal of wave ‘C’ is still in play here.
If this is the case,
then wave [v] of ‘C’ is now pretty much done here.
The lower trend line is close,
and the overall pattern of wave ‘C’ is a clear ending diagonl pattern.

My bullish stance in USDJPY has been knocked down this week,
but I do not think we are farr from a major USD rally here.

Tomorrow;
All I can do now is wait for the next bullish reversal pattern to emerge.
I don’t think that is far away.
Lets see if the price holds above the lower trend line first.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The whipsaw action in the DOW has opened up another possible count for wave ‘C’ of (ii) today.
The market wobble early in the seession created an overlap of the previous high from last week.
And then the market ripped higher again to create a new high for wave ‘c’.
The price action today may have completed an ending diagonal wave ‘c’.
And this compeltes another three wave corrective pattern in wave (ii).
Also,
that high today has held below the 78.6% Fib retracement level.
And if this is wave (ii) here,
the top just so happened to complete just below the the previous wave ‘ii’ high at onle lower degree.

There is no certain thing in the markets,
but this pattern look complete to me.

Tomorrow;
Watch for an initial decline to indicate that wave ‘c’ is done.
Obviously I will be looking for wave ‘i’ to retrace most of the wave ‘c’ rally.
so that givces us the target of 32800 to confirm wave (iii) has begun.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

A new high and another overlap to end the day.
If the gold rally has been fueled by a weaker USD as I keep hearing.
Then should not a reversing CPI suggest the USD weakness is over??
And hence the gold price is about to reverse??

But,
as usual people will find every reason in the world to buy something at the end of an established trend.

Never mind, I keep trying to find logic in the actions of the market!
Silly me!

Gold has not made the reversal that I wanted to see this week.
But I can not bin that ending diagonal wave ‘v’ idea yet.
It is the only way I can make sense of the continual overlapping action that has gon on now since the beginning of December last.

So on I go into the murky future searching for that turn in the price trend that simply must occur sooner rather than later,.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 1866 again as that marks the first support shelf.
The first real indication of the trend change will come with a break of 1824 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The everything rally did bring crude with it also today but I don’t think the pattern has been affected by the action really.
The correction higher in wave (ii) is still intact.
We have a three wave correction in place now,
and that rally has halted below the 78.6% retracement level again.
So I am satisfied to suggest that a top is forming in a corrective lower high in wave (ii) now.

I know that invalidation line is getting closer at 81.50,
So I am aware that this pattern is not invincible!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to begin with a decline back into the corrective range of wave ‘b’ of (ii) below 76.00 again.
An impulsive decline from this lower high will suggest wave (ii) is done.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The price has bounced around in the S&P all day also,
and now a double top seems to have formed below the 62% retracement level of wave ‘i’ this evening.
I would certainly welcome a solid decline tomorrow to begin wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’.
Time will tell on that front.

This pattern in wave ‘i’ and ‘iii’ is just about p*rf*ct here.
I dare not say the word perfect as I will be killed if this goes wrong!

But as far as the internal structure and of both the impulsive decline in wave ‘i’ and the corrective nature of wave ‘ii’,
I cant ask for anything better.
All that we need here is confirmation with a sharp decline into wave ‘iii’ again.
And that is what I have been waiting for!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to put an end to this correction with a drop back below 3850 as the initial signal.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has complete the wave (ii) pattern to a ‘T’ today.
The price spiked higher to break the wave ‘a’ high at the target level,
and immediately we saw a sharp spike lower almost taking out the full wave ‘c’ rally again.
This evening we have a lower high in place off the wave (ii) top.
And now I am watching for wave (iii) to take over and break 23.00 again to signal this market has finally turned into that wave ‘5’ decline.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at todays highs.
A continued decline early in the session tomorrow will signal wave (iii) is underway.