Good evening folks, And God Bless you all tonight.

I have to apologies to you all tonight regarding my tardy email replies, if you are waiting for an email reply from me, please be patient!

If you didn’t hear yet, Ireland is back in another lockdown again. So all the schools are closed again and we are back to homeschooling our kids.

This is delaying everything that I would normally get to on a daily basis, including emails and videos!

So hang on in there, I will get there!

On with the show.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is sitting just above the initial resistance band at 1.22 this evening.
This band is marked by the previous fourth wave low and the internal wave ‘i’ low.
I am expecting wave (iii) down to continue lower tomorrow,
but I want to see that wave ‘i’ low at 1.2244 to hold.
Wave ‘v’ of (iii) should push below 1.21 to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that band of resistance to hold.
A break above that level will trigger the alternate count.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable headed higher into wave ‘v’ of (v) to close out the ending diagonal pattern.
Wave ‘v’ should trace out a three wave pattern in this scenario,
and we should see a break of 1.3704 at a minimum.
After that I fully expect to see a sharp reversal lower to begin a larger trend change.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to remain in force for the next few sessions.
A touch of that upper trend line will bring the price up to 1.3760.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave [ii] began today and so far we have a three wave decline in place off the high.
I am allowing for a complex wave [ii] pattern to trace out here, and so todays decline is labelled wave (a) of [ii].
The initial support lies at 103.60 at the previous fourth wave low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to hold at support and wave (b) should form a higher low starting tomorrow.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has done absolutely nothing today and I think this is explained by the current pattern pretty well.
Wave ‘b’ of (v) is underway today,
and this should be followed by wave ‘c’ of (v) with a new all time high.
The price is spiking higher this evening and this may be the start of wave ‘c’.
Wave ‘c’ should push out above 31250 again to complete three waves up in wave (v).

Tomorrow;
watch for the price to hold above the wave (iv) low at 30740.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is chopping sideways without any net gain today.
This action can be viewed as a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern,
with a running flat wave ‘ii’ that completed at todays lows.

The bullish interpretation is favored slightly again today,
but I cant shake that alternate count circled in red,
which calls for a rally in wave [ii] followed by a larger decline into the 1730 area in wave [iii].

The fact that this very bearish count is still a viable alternate is concerning.
And I am tracking it closely for that reason.
We should be able to rule this alternate count by the end of the week if all goes well.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to push up to 1880 before correcting in wave ‘iv’.

1817 must hold again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

This week is still has the potential to see a reversal form in crude.
The price has shrugged off any decline so far,
but there is a severe bearish divergence on the daily, 4hr and now the hourly charts.
Also we have that that un-nerving extreme long position built in the the futures market from both institutional side and the small investor.
All of this pointing to a topping process that is very well mature now.

As for the ending diagonal count in wave ‘C’,
the price sitting on the upper trend line for the moment.
But this will not last.
The turn is inevitable, its just a patience game now.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The move off the all time high is still quite corrective looking at the moment.
It can easily develop impulsively to the downside this week,
but I have introduced an alternate for wave [v] just in case this does not happen.

In this scenario the ending diagonal can still be a reasonable interpretation,
with wave (iii) extending into the current highs,
and wave (iv) set to move lower next week.

That alternate count will extend the timeline a to the final top but only by a week or so I suspect.

Tomorrow;
If the action turns lower impulsively this week,
that will favor the bearish main count.
lets see how it goes.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I cant tell if todays rise is still within wave [iv] green as suggested,
or if wave ‘2’ is already underway.
Its a close call between both interpretations now as the action can easily fit both scenarios.

If we see another drop below 25.00 again that will favor the idea that wave ‘1’ is still in force.

Tomorrow;
In the main wave count the price must hold below 26.58 at the wave [i] low.

The corrective action off the recent low looks set to continue tomorrow,
but I expect to see wave [v] of ‘1’ take over by tomorrow evening.