Good evening folks and welcome back.
Here is a nice piece from bianco research that I found interesting and worth a read.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has created a three wave rise into todays highs.
The wave count suggests this rally to a lower high
as a corrective wave ‘ii’ of (i) to the downside.
If this is correct,
then wave ‘ii’ should complete below 1.1239.
And wave ‘iii’ should push lower again towards support at 1.1065.
Tomorrow;
The larger wave (i) down should be underway now.
If the price falls below 1.1150 tomorrow then the bearish count will be more lokely.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to begin overnight and break 1.1150.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is up today in a possible wave ‘ii’ also.
The lower high below 1.3283 is intact so far,
but wave ‘ii’ does not have a clear three wave pattern in place yet.
The rise today may only be the initial move within a larger three wave correction in wave ‘ii’.
So we may have more sideways action for the next few days if that is the case.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and for price to return lower again below 1.3052.
A break of that wave ‘i’ low will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has put in a reasonably impulsive rally off Fridays lows.
The rally has traced out three waves to the upside.
So there is a way to go before we have a clear five waves up in place as shown.
But today was a good start for sure.
Tomorrow;
If todays rise was in wave ‘iii’ of (i),
then wave ‘iv’ will likely begin tomorrow and fall back to rest no the trend channel line.
Wave ‘v’ should push up towards 108.86.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The structure in the DOW off the high is still counted as a correction to the upside in wave (ii).
Todays rise is viewed as wave ‘c’ of (ii),
Where wave (ii) is a running flat correction to the upside.
Wave (ii) should complete a lower high below 28872.
And if we then see further weakness which drops back below 28230,
that will signal wave (iii) down has begun.
A break of 28360 again will rule out the current action as a further extension in wave (v) of [v].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below the all time high and then reverse lower for the rest of the week in wave (iii).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold gaped higher overnight to reach a high at 1587.
This brought us above the high at the previous wave [iii] green at 1554.
This recent top is now viewed as the high for wave ‘iii’ pink as shown.
And the drop off that high should be viewed as a correction in wave ‘iv’ pink.
It is impossible to know which corrective pattern wave ‘iv’ will develop into at the moment,
But we now have three level of support working in our favor.
The immediate support lies at 1554, and 1535 marks the internal wave (b) of [ii]
So I expect wave ‘iv’ of (iii) to complete in that range somewhere.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to continue for a couple of days and hold above 1535.
Wave ‘v’ of (iii) should push higher again out of the low of wave ‘iv’.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is off the highs again today in a quite an looking impulsive move.
after spiking overnight to create a new high at 64.50.
I want to see some follow through now to the downside as wave (i) gets underway.
And a break of 60.00 again will signal that the top is in for wave ‘2’.
We have a cluster of highs at the 59.00 handle also,
so I expect wave (i) should find support in this area.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 64.50.
Wave ‘iii’ down should break initial support at 60.50.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is rallying hard into the close this evening.
If this rally fails to break to a new high tomorrow,
and then falls back below 3000 again,
that will add serious weight to the idea that we have topped out at last.
The sharp rally this evening is viewed as wave ‘c’ of (ii) also in the S&P.
The wave (i) low lies at 3205,
so, if we see a drop back below that level it should signal that wave (iii) has begun.
An impulse wave to the downside is what I want to see from here.
So that all time high must hold for this to remain a possibility.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete a lower high below 3263 and then drop back again in wave (iii).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
After a spike to the upside overnight,
silver has again corrected back lower this evening.
This evenings decline has occurred in three wave so far.
So I have labelled this as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
Waves ‘b’ and ‘c’ should take another few days to unfold.
And the correction should find support at about 17.80 again.
If the wave (i) is now complete at the high of 18.50,
then wave (iii) up will be confirmed with a break of 18.50 again.
And that wave has a very big bullish potential.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to rise in three waves off todays lows at wave ‘a’.
Wave ‘b’ should complete below 18.50.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
That small drop in bonds today is likely a correction within wave ‘c’ of (ii) as shown on the short term chart.
Wave ‘c’ has not traveled far enough yet to deem it complete.
I want to see a break of 130.46 at a minimum before looking lower into wave (iii) again.
Wave ‘c’ should continue higher for the rest of the week to achieve that goal.
so this corrective action today should stop soon and wave ‘c’ should return higher.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher for the rest of the week towards the target at 130.50.