Good evening to you all and welcome to the new calendar year!

Heres a few charts from sentiment trader that I think give us a 30000 ft view of where we stand in this new year.

On we go into the year ahead with a sober view of where the market stands right now at the open of the game!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is whipsawing quite sharply over the last few weeks at the end of a long and drawn out rally over the previous 6 months.
The best explanation for this action is a fourth and fifth scenario.

Waves (i) and (ii) of [v] are close to completion this evening.
WAve ‘c’ of (ii) must hold above 1.2189 and then return higher in wave (iii) later in the week.
And wave [v] will likely push up above 1.2500 in this final leg higher.

Tomorrow;
1.2189 must hold.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 1.2309.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The final run higher in wave (v) in cable is still in play today.
The decline in wave ‘ii’ of (v) began quite sharply,
but the price is holding above the invalidation level at 1.3429.
As long as that level holds,
then wave (v) can continue higher towards 1.39 to complete.

There is an alternate view for wave (iv) as a running flat.
And then wave (v) as an ending diagonal out of that low.
In this scenario the top is already in.

A break of the 1.3429 low will favor the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above the invalidation line at 1.3429 and push higher into wave ‘iii’.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Despite making new lows today USDJPY is continually diverging higher in momentum on the 4hr chart.
This is a clear sign of a regime change in the making.
On top of that,
add the corrective nature of the declines over the last month,
it has taken over 2 months to fall from 103.65 to 102.70, low to low.

The world will be shocked when this long established downside trend changes into 2021.

tomorrow;
I await a clear bullish signal off the lows in the form of an impulsive five wave rally.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

you gotta admitt,
todays decline was quite impulsive looking!

We will have to wait and see if this initial spike lower is followed by a corrective lower high in wave [ii].
If that happens towards midweek,
then we can expect some fireworks once wave [iii] down begins later in the week.

The pattern into the recent high is quite full now with a possible ending diagonal in place.
the price did find support at the previous wave (ii) low today,
so this does leave open the chance of a renewed rally.
I would like to see this level broken later this week to really add to the topping potential.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold below the all time high and form a corrective lower high over the next few sessions.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays rally has opened up another more likely bullish count for gold in the short term.
Wave [i] up is nearing the completion of a clear five wave pattern off the recent lows at 1764.
The price has almost filled a trend channel off the recent lows,
and I think when that happens,
we can look for a large correction off the high of wave [i] in wave [ii].

Wave [ii] will probably push into the the 1820 area again in three waves over the next few weeks.
And then wave [iii] should push out to new all time highs in due course.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] to find a top by midweek,
A drop back below 1900 will begin wave [ii].

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude took sharp hit off the highs today also.
The previous short term wave count was ruled out by the early rally today,
but the price has fallen again off the high and broken the shelf of support at the 47.55 handle that had formed over the last week.

If we see another lower high form in wave (ii) in the next session or two,
then we can look for wave (iii) to fall back below 46.00 by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below the high of todays session.
Wave (ii) should find resistance at the 49.00 handle again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P started the year off with some very enticing downside action!
The price hit the upper trend line to finish off that expanding diagonal in wave [v],
and then immediately turned lower in pretty impulsive fashion.

We will only have to wait and see if that bearish pattern holds up and we truly have turned a corner into the new year.
but that sure is a good start.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below the all time highs again and trace out a three wave correction to a lower high.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver triggered the alternate count today with a push above the previous top at 27.40.
It is now clear that wave ‘C’ of (B) is tracing out a five wave pattern,
rather than the three wave pattern that I was tracking before.

This action now classifies wave (B) as a normal flat correction.
And now we are free to begin a descent into wave (C) of [2] over the coming weeks.
WAve [2] should easily fall below 20.00 again to complete this very large correction.

Tomorrow;
It is not clear yet if wave wave [v] of ‘C’ is complete at todays high,
or if we will get a further extension into to complete that wave.

If we see a break of 26.00 again,
that will favor the idea that wave [v] and wave ‘C’ are complete.