Welcome to 2020, I never thought I would make it this far to be honest, but here I am none the less!
Down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
After the market hit that 1.1239 high last Tuesday, it looks like the appetite for a higher wave (c) top just petered out.
the previous wave (iv) high lies at 1.1250,
plus the two trend channels offered enough resistance to repel the rally.
The price is falling today, not quite impulsively yet.
But this decline definitely has potential to develop into a larger wave (i) down as shown.
So that is where I will concentrate for the next few days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a bearish lower high in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to signal that a larger wave (i) down has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD is also lower today
and the decline is looking promising as an impulsive move so far.
If this first move lower is wave (iii) now underway,
then the high of wave (ii) at 1.3283 should hold from here.
Again,
Wave (iii) down should begin with a bearish lower high as shown.
And then continue lower over the coming week.
Only a break of 1.2903 will confirm that wave (iii) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to create that lower high below 1.3283 by tomorrow evening.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY spiked lower this afternoon reaching a low of 108.21.
This is in line with a possible fifth wave drop
off the corrective high formed on Tuesday in wave [iv] green.
Todays low is now labelled as wave [v] of ‘C’.
If this low has completed wave ‘C’,
Then there is a rising probability that USDJPY has put in a final low in the very large triangle wave [B].
And things could get very exciting if that is the case.
The price has recovered off the lows this evening.
So it is time to begin to look for an impulsive rally off 108.21.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 108.21 to hold and wave (i) of [i] to begin.
We should see a higher low develop over the coming days at wave (ii).
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Wave [v] has not given up its grip on the market just yet
after todays rally broke to a new high.
The short term count for wave [v] is altered slightly this evening to account for this rally.
And I am still convinved that this new high is merely formality at this point.
the top for wave [v] is coming our way.
And it is very likely that we will see a rapid turn lower into wave [i] down
to break the back of the rally.
The first major support level lies at 27320 at the porevious fouth wave.
I would not be surprised to see a drop into that low to complete wave [i].
Even though we have seen a new high today,
I am completely focused on the gargantuan downside potential now.
Tomorrow;
We need to identify a five wave move lower off the high to begin wave [i] down.
Last weeks drop did not follow through.
So I am patiently waiting for the next drop to provide the goods!
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is steadily inching higher today despite the rally in stocks.
Again this should serve as a worrying sign for the market,
given that this rally is occurring after a large corrective selloff
and with a backdrop of such monumental bullish sentiment in the stock market.
It looks like wave ‘iii’ of (i) is still in force in gold.
And wave ‘iii’ should have a little more upside
before correcting in wave ‘iv’ possibly next week.
Tomorrow;
1535 is the initial target for wave ‘iii’.
Watch for a break above that resistance level before wave ‘iii’ completes.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude held below the Mondays high at wave [ii] again today.
The drop off that high has not developed impulsively yet,
but I am willing to give it time to see what pattern emerges on the downside.
After a good hard look at the recent action,
I have altered the short term count for wave [ii] today.
It now shows a triangle in the place of wave (b) of [ii].
And then a five wave rally up into wave (c) of [ii].
It is possible that this weeks drop is only wave ‘iv’ of (c)
with another high in wave ‘v’ left.
But this market has corrected higher for three months now,
so I think we could move lower very quickly.
And that is where I am focused.
Tomorrow;
62.20 should hold.
A drop back below 60.00 again will suggest wave (i) down has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The upper trend channel line just seems too big a draw to the market now in wave [v] green.
The pattern may have extended in wave [v] a few times now,
but that does not change the fact that this is a death rattle as they say!
And when this rally does break,
it is going to break in a big way that will not be mistaken as a correction.
Wave (v) of [v] is pulling the market up to a new all time high this evening as I write.
The upper trend channel line will be met at about 3290 or there about.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) to put in a final high possible tomorrow evening.
Next week is lining up to be a down week as wave (i) gets underway.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is dragging along sideways this week.
And the price range continues to tighten.
So,
this raises the possibility of a triangle in wave ‘iv’ developing.
And it also suggests wave ‘v’ of (i) will rally again next week.
If this triangle is correct,
then wave (i) will likely top in the area of 18.50 or so before wave (ii) heads lower again.
Tomorrow;
The price must hold above 17.77 for this triangle to remain valid.
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete above that level by tomorrow evening.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
I have switched to the alternate count for wave (ii) today
after that sharp spike higher this afternoon.
The pattern over the last month seems to have created a triangle in the place of wave ‘b’.
And todays small rally should now continue higher in wave ‘c’ over the coming week.
The trend channel around wave (ii) suggests a high for wave ‘c’ at about 130.50 again.
Tomorrow;
Price must hold above 12815 at wave ‘b’.
A break of 129.05 will signal wave ‘c’ is in force.