Good evening to one and all,
Monday is Memorial day in the U.S, So the market will be closed.
I will not be posting on Monday,
Unless something major happens, which is very unlikely!
What a dump in Crude today!
I have documented the extreme bullish behavior in the Crude oil market over the last few weeks.
One commentator after another came out with reasons why oil was going to $100 and beyond.
And then, of course,
the absolute polar opposite occurs......
Todays drop was all in line with the current wave count setup.
But it was absolutely at odd's with recent market sentiment.
IT just goes to show,
Over bullish extremes,
Along with a completed wave count,
Is probably the best tool for timing market turns.
The big question is this - What is coming next?
And I think whats coming will knock your socks off!
Down to business.
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: CB Consumer Confidence.
EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y.
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks.
My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topped in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
The sharp drop in EURUSD today came in wave '3' of 'iii' into the lows at 1.1646.
And since the lows, the price has been pinned to the floor,
in a possible corrective wave '4' grey.
Wave 'iii' pink does not look complete just yet.
Another drop towards the minimum target at 1.1597 will create an internal five wave pattern within wave 'iii'.
Watch for wave 'iii' to complete in the region of 1.1600.
Wave 'iv' pink should then correct higher.
My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: completed wave (4) blue correction higher.
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable dropped in a possible wave 'b' grey as part of a larger triangle wave 'iv'.
The decline looks corrective with many internal overlaps.
So this action fits with the triangle idea so far.
The price has again stopped short of breaking key support at 1.3301.
But it is just a matter of time.
Watch for continued consolidation in wave 'iv' pink which should complete below 1.3389.
wave 'v' should then break key support.
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY continues to follow the zigzag corrective pattern set out for wave [ii] grey.
Wave (B) green seems to be well underway off the 108.95 low at wave (a).
Wave (b) looks to be tracing out a three wave flat correction higher,
A flat correction has a 3,3,5 internal wave structure.
Wave 'a' brown is in three waves.
Wave 'b' dropped in three waves,
Wave 'c' should now carry higher in a five wave pattern into the target area of 110.00.
Wave (b) green should continue higher on Tuesday into 110.00.
Wave (C) will begin later next week.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high, now beginning new bear market.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
The DOW did not reach the upper trendline today as expected,
The price fell short of the wave 'a' high in the cash market,
So wave 'ii' counts as a running flat rather than an expanded flat.
The declines off todays highs should be the beginning of wave 'iii' of (i) grey.
and that will be confirmed with a decline below 24605.
Watch for wave '2' blue to create another lower high and wave '3' blue to carry below 24605 to confirm the count.
My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new all time high.
Long term wave count: wave [iii] above 1666.
GOLD may have completed wave '3' up at todays highs.
The decline off the high of the session is counted as wave '4' of 'i'.
Wave '4' must not break the high of wave '1' at 1296.
So the margin is tight as we move into the close tonight.
If 1296 is crossed,
that will suggest a series of 1,2 waves up off the low,
And we could then expect an extension higher in wave '3'.
We will cross that bridge if needs be!
The focus in GOLD has not changed.
I am still looking for a complete five waves up off the low,
followed by a three wave decline to a higher low.
That could occur next week,
And then we will have a clear bullish Elliott wave signal.
U.S CRUDE OIL
My Bias: topping in a large correction wave .
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave  red now complete.
Long term wave count: wave  target $20
It's been a brutal day for crude oil bulls!
The price is down 300 points, and is sitting at the lows of the session.
There was no answer to the selling what so ever.
Todays decline is a big vote of confidence for the larger wave count,
Which views Crude oil as turning down into a significant bear-market for the next few years.
on the short term chart;
I have shown the decline as an extension in wave 'iii' pink, which is still underway.
Wave 'iii' may even break key support at 66.37 before it completes.
that could happen in a light market on Monday.
Wave (i) should complete below key support by midweek.
I expect to see a three wave corrective rally then occur in wave (ii) grey.
Once wave (ii) completes,
we will have a large degree Elliott wave signal in place,
And the scene will be set for the next leg down.
Thats it for this week.
As I mentioned, Monday is a market holiday Stateside.
So there will not be an update on Monday night.
I will chat to you all again after the close on Tuesday.
God's speed to one and all.