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HI everyone,
I hope the day treated you well.
Heres a chart to accompany last nights intro.
Notice the converging extreme positions held by opposing market players, that being money managers and producers.
And notice the fallout from previous examples of this behavior!
More on this chart later, for now its down to business.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y,
GBP: BOE Gov Carney Speaks,
JPY: N/A.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new all time high.
Long term wave count: wave [iii] above 1666.
GOLD has disappointed me more times than I can remember over the last three months!
Since 04/11, GOLD has declined 8% in nominal value.
Yet bearish sentiment is at an extreme not seen for years.
Take a look at the COT data shown above.
Money managers are now more bearish on GOLD than at the lows of January 2017.
While producers have risen to their least bearish hedging position since that same date.
Notice the reaction in price after times of convergence.
The last time these opposing forces came this close in their respective futures positions,
The price rallied $250 dollars over the following 9 months.
I expect the same and more this time!
The 4hr chart shows the price again approaching to lower trend channel line,
and the price is getting too close for comfort to the key support level at 1236.
GOLD has got to turn up now to avoid invalidating this wave count.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if this evenings bounce continues.
I am still awaiting the initial impulse higher to begin wave [iii].
that remains the focus for the week ahead.
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