Elliott Wave Analysis
The continued rise in crude over the last few days has prompted a cautionary alternate wave count.
I have shown the labeling circled in red,
An A,B,C rally with a contracting triangle in wave B,
Despite an impulsive decline off a lower high today.
prices recovered well this evening casting doubt on the bearish scenario.
Todays low must be broken to revive the wave count.
The price reached the upper trendline today in a possible wave (c) grey.
This action has completed a three wave form inside the parallel trend channel.
Today we had the ECB chief ‘draghi’ say that substantial monetary accommodation is still needed????
Forgive me for thinking that the systemic problems were solved,
The whipsaw action in the middle of the day
does confuse matters slightly for the current wave count,
Further declines are called for in order to validate the current wave count.
Todays high in crude reached 51.42,
This level also market the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the recent decline.
The price may have just created a double top on the short term chart.
Despite a gap to the upside this morning to another new all time high.
The probability is now quite high that the market is at its asymptote,
And will soon begin to roll over to the downside.