Good evening all.
EURUSD did not manage a rally into 1.1660 today.
The price topped at 1.1643, and took a hit this afternoon again.
It is possible that wave (ii) brown has completed a running flat.
Where wave 'c' does not break the end of wave 'a'.
If the price breaks 1.1525 again,
that should signal that wave (ii) is complete and wave (iii) down has begun.
Watch for a break of support at 1.1525 in wave 'i' of (iii).
Wave 'v' of (c) looks to have completed a clear five wave pattern at todays high.
The price broke through the upper trend channel line,
and then dropped sharply again this evening.
This could be the beginning of wave 'i' down.
We should see a clear five waves down and three wave recovery to a lower high below 1.3086.
Watch for a five wave pattern down in wave 'i' pink.
we might get a clear sell signal this week in cable below the wave [ii] high.
I have shown a declining trendline spanning across the previous three peaks in price beginning on Aug 1st.
The price is right back at that line today in a possible wave '1'.
There is a chance that this line is pointing to the alternate count for USDJPY.
This could be a triangle wave (b) within wave [ii].
I have shown this alternate count on the 4hr chart.
A break of 110.38 will trigger that count.
If the price breaks above 112.14 that should be enough to confirm the bullish outlook.
Watch for a decline in wave '2' followed by a break of 111.83 in wave '3'.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
The DOW continues to hang on for dear life today,
a rally in wave 'c' of (ii) has brought the price back up to the 26000 level again.
So far the recent high has held at 26167,
and there are a series of lower highs appearing off that high.
Along with a horrible momentum setup on the 4hr chart,
this market is displaying all the hallmarks of a top again.
All we need from here is a clear five wave impulsive decline to seal the deal.
And that is what I am looking for this week.
Watch for that declining trendline to hold and for wave (iii) to begin with a sharp move lower.
GOLD triggered the alternate short term count today.
Price broke 1189 briefly in wave 'c' of 'ii'.
And again, the price has spiked higher off that low.
If wave 'iii' has begun off todays low,
then we should see a rally back towards resistance quite quickly at 1217.
Wave 'b' of 'ii' lies at 1207,
A break above that level will be a bullish sign that wave 'iii' is underway.
On the 4hr chart,
You can see that the the 50MA and 200MA have compressed.
The price is trapped below that 50MA and failed to break above just yet.
If we get a rally in wave 'iii' that will also cause bullish MA cross.
That is something to watch for this week.
Wave '1' of 'iii' must push higher now to put an end to this endless correction.
watch for a break of 1207 first, to signal the beginning of wave 'iii'.
U.S CRUDE OIL
A sharp move higher in crude today has triggered the alternate short term count for wave (ii).
Wave (ii) has a clear three wave structure off the low.
And the price is sitting just below the 61.8% retracement level of wave (i) this evening.
On the 4hr chart,
you can see a clear head and shoulders pattern around the recent high.
The neckline lies at 63.38, the previous wave '4' blue.
That may be a long way down,
but wave [iii] should break that level quite easily.
Watch for wave (ii) to complete at or below the 61.8% retracement level of 69.58.
We should get a nice impulsive move lower in wave 'i' of (iii) by the end of tomorrows session.
US 10 yr Treasuries.
The price dropped out of the contracting triangle wave '4' today in a possible wave '5' of 'iii'.
The ideal target for wave 'iii' is at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave 'i'.
That level lies at 119.13.
A break of that level would strengthen the case for a clear impulse wave off the highs of wave [iv] green.
Watch for wave 'iii' to complete at 119.00.
Wave 'iv' should then begin a correction higher to the 119.50 area.
Silver did break lower out of the wave '4' triangle today.
It is now likely that wave '5' of 'v' is complete.
And with that,
The whole correction in wave '2' red.
The price has spiked higher this evening off the low of the session at 13.94.
I want to see this rise continue in wave 'i' pink.
The first significant resistance level lies at 15.00.
A break above that level will confirm that the price has turned.
Watch for 13.94 to hold and an impulse wave higher to form off the lows.
The short term pattern seems clearer in the S&P500 in comparison to the DOW.
We got a spike higher in a possible 'c' wave today,
which completes a three ave correction and a 50% retracement in wave (ii).
the action that follows from here will define the previous pattern.
A break of 2863 will confirm wave (ii) has completed,
and a decline in wave 'i' of (iii) should do just that.
Watch for wave 'i' of (iii) to begin.