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Good evening to one and all.
A man once stated that the stock market had " reached what looks like a permanently high plateau ".
Irving Fisher never lived that statement down as it came just nine days before the final high in 1929.
Of course nowadays it is taken for granted that the market will remain sky high, permanently.
Without a risk to be seen on the horizon,
we may as well all just jump on board the freight-train to riches.
All you have to do is buy!
Not so fast!
I will present the alternate counts for stocks below,
and it is not in the slightest bit bullish at all.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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Its a day for the alternate count.
Except I think we have a twist developing in the stock market.
On the 4hr chart;
Todays new highs are now labelled as wave 'B' of (4).
Wave 'C' down is expected to begin without much delay.
Wave 'C' should carry below 21400 to complete a large flat wave (4) red.
This count then suggests another rise into wave (5) of [5] as before
to complete the whole five wave cycle from the great depression lows of 1932.
And on that time line,
a few months of shaky market market action is nothing.
Once wave [5] is done,
We are facing into a 20 year bear-market.
which will wipe out 90% of the nominal value of all stocks with ease.
And this is the reason I have been so damn bearish for so damn long!
The risks are monumental!
On the 4hr chart I have shown the next best interpretation.
This alternate count shows the current rally as wave (5) of [5].
And there is a very clear case to be made for that view
especially if we break to new all time highs.
If this recent rally off the December lows breaks to a new all time high,
Then I will switch to that alternate count which calls wave (5) of [5] complete.
Following that wave [5] high,
we can expect a bear-market like we have never seen before.
A depression will ensue,
and an economic collapse that will wreak more havoc than the debacle of the 1930's.
At a minimum, wave 'C' of (4) will carry the market back towards 20000 again.
So this is no time to be complacent either.
Tomorrow;
the internal wave structure of the recent rally has not changed.
This is still a three wave rally in wave 'B' rather than wave '2'.
So from this point we still need to look for five waves down to begin wave 'C'.
That is the aim again this week.
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