Good evening to one and all, the Lord’s Blessings to you tonight.
Welcome back to one and all.
It’s been a busy weekend for us here as my daughter got discharged from hospital on Saturday.
Thanks be to God!
Because of this I have fallen behind on emails etc.
So if you are waiting for a reply from me,
fear not I will get to you soon.
A new week lies ahead of us now,
and the market should solidify a few of the patterns by the end of this week.
The last few weeks have been meandering and lacking conviction in many of these patterns,
so it’s time to get real again I think.
The quarterly options expiry last week seemed to push and stretch patterns into the heavy traded price levels,
and now that this strike price gravity has been taken from the market,
There is a good chance that reality will begin to play heavy on the proceedings from here.
Ok,
on with the show.
https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
That wave ‘c’ rally in EURUSD has stalled out and reversed slightly today.
Three waves up is complete here in wave (ii).
This pattern is enough to signal wave [c] down is now underway.
and I am looking for wave (iii) of [c] to take the price lower this week to confirm the pattern.
Wave (iii) of [c] will start with a break of 1.0780 at the wave ‘a’ high.
That level is the initial signal that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is in play.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to fall back to break 1.0780 again in five waves.
1.1091 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has come off the boil today also.
The top at wave ‘v’ of (c) is holding at 1.2846 for now.
Although the decline today is too small to read much into it yet.
I expect that extended rally in wave (c) of [b] will not hold for long.
I think wave (i) down should reverse that rally pretty quickly if this count is correct.
So the next few sessions are important to re-assert this wave count again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to turn lower in five waves to break 1.2545 at the wave (a) high.
A break of that level will really boost this expanded flat idea for the larger wave ‘B’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 4hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is holding the gains made last week as wave ‘iii’ pushed higher.
The wave pattern is working but there is more to do to complete the larger wave [iii] green.
I am of the opinion that wave ‘iii’ of (v) is not complete yet,
and I am looking at the area around 143.44 to top out wave ‘iii’ later in the week.
This level is where wave ‘iii’ will hit the 162% extension of wave ‘i’ pink.
If this happens,
then wave ‘iv’ of (v) can correct again as shown,
and wave ‘v’ of (v) should push higher to top out this larger pattern in wave [iii] green back above 144.00 again by the end of this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher in five waves towards that target area above 143.00.
I would like to see the wave ‘i’ level hold at 141.50.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is closing the session off the top of last Fridays highs which is at least a start on where I want to see this pattern go.
The market has not retraced back to any support yet so I do not have much to work with here yet.
The first level of interest below is that wave ‘4’ low at 33778.
That level also formed resistance in the previous pattern of wave ‘b’ of ‘iv’.
You can see that wave ‘b’ topped out below that high.
So I am interested to see if this level can switch back from support to resistance,
and if the market builds a reversal pattern off the recent top to break that level again.
There are all only thoughts and suggestions without the action to back them up yet.
So I am very interested to see a break of support to begin this process of reversal again this week.
Tomorrow;
A decline to break support will be the confirming price action needed for this pattern now.
So lets see if the market can fall to break 33780 again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has drifted off Fridays top today and the decline looks corrective at the moment.
I am suggesting that wave ‘c’ of (B) should top out at 1983 again this week.
In this scenario,
the price is now creating a higher low in wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ of ‘c’.
With the rest of that five wave rally to come later this week.
Wave ‘c’ will hit the 50% retracement of wave (a) at the 2006 area as shown.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to hold above 1931.
A break of that level will suggest wave (b) is done and wave (c) is already underway.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The rally in crude is starting to falter a little today as the price is flat at the close.
The key level for this wave count lies at the wave ‘b’ low at 68.20.
A break below that level will suggest wave (ii) is complete and wave ‘i’ of (iii) has begun.
Wave (iii) down has the potential to fall into the 60.00 area again when complete,
So if this pattern is correct,
there is an acceleration lower coming our way this week.
The alternate count is still a legitimate way to view the current action,
although a break below 66.95 again will rule out this idea.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P holding below the top created last week which is easy to do really,
given that the market rallied continuously since the 24th of may.
The top reached last week happened just above the level where wave ‘i’ and ‘v’ reached equality.
And now this pattern will really be tested by what happens next.
If we see the decline continue and we get a break of the wave ‘iv’ level at 4256 again,
that will be something to work with again.
So I will freely admit we are at a critical point in the structure here at least in the hourly chart.
The larger wave ‘2’ on the 4hr pattern is solid in my view.
There is room to work with in terms of that larger pattern.
And this can even allow a new high to form.
Obviously I would prefer this market to turn sooner rather than later.
Tomorrow;
I am forced to sit tight here and wait for that initial decline to break below 4256.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The pattern in silver has not progressed a whole lot today.
I am suggesting that wave ‘iv’ of (c) may be forming a small triangle as shown.
Wave ‘v’ should still push higher towards 24.50 to complete the larger wave [b] correction.
this should be done by midweek if this pattern holds.
and then later this week I will look for wave (i) of [c] to turn lower again.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iv’ of (c) should complete very soon and then turn higher in wave ‘v’.
Watch for wave (c) to complete five waves up near 24.50.
BITCOIN
BITCOIN 1hr.
BITCOIN 4hr.
BITCOIN daily.
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FTSE 100.
FTSE 100 1hr.
FTSE 100 4hr.
FTSE 100 daily.
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DAX.
DAX 1hr
DAX 4hr
DAX daily.
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NASDAQ 100.
NASDAQ 1hr
NASDAQ 4hr.
NASDAQ daily.
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