Good evening to one and all again at the beginning of a new week.

May I just ask for forgiveness for my absence on Friday.
The last few days completely got away from me to be honest.
We had family visitors come in for the weekend and the preparations for that just gobbled up the whole weekend.
So Fridays update got shelved as a result.

The market was actually closed today in the U.S,
so the trade was pretty non existent across the markets to be honest.
But I will update tonight anyway because I missed Friday.

Now,
with all that said,
lets see what has been going on lately.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has been holding at the lows near the 1.07 handle for three days now.
This lack of action is hard to put a pattern on to be honest.
I have not changed the wave count for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ yet,
but if we do not see a rally back above 1.0830 starting tomorrow,
then I will be forced to consider another count for this decline.

Tomorrow;
The price is creating a base at the 1.07 area,
so it is possible we will get a counter trend rally off this base in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ as shown.
I am looking at that initial target level of 1.0830,
up as far as the 50% retracement of wave ‘i’ at 1.0924 for wave ‘c’ to complete.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is flat over the last few days and I am suggesting this is a possible wave ‘b’ triangle of wave ‘ii’.
The triangle may be complete at the low this morning,
and if this is true,
then we can expect a rally in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ for tomorrow.
Wave ‘c’ should break the wave ‘a’ high and complete a three wave pattern near 1.2420.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this small correction in wave ‘ii’ to finish up by tomorrow evening.
If the price tops out near 1.2420 and reverses lower again,
that will suggest wave ‘ii’ is complete and wave ‘iii’ has begun.

the high of wave (ii) must hold at 1.2468.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has stopped the relentless rally in wave (iii) for at least today anyway.
I have shown a full wave count for wave (iii) blue,
including an extended pattern in wave ‘v’ of (iii).
In general I expect the trade this week to roll over into a corrective decline in wave (iv) of [iii].
and this next correction should fall back in three waves to the area of the previous fourth wave low at 137.50.

Of course this is speculation until the initial reversal happens in wave ‘a’.
And I don’t think this has been confirmed yet either.
So it is a waiting game until we get a more substantial reversal to work with here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (iv) to fall back towards 139.20 or so in a three wave pattern.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW rallied hard on Friday after the news on the debt ceiling deal.
This rally comes off the back of a solid impulsive decline and new low in wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ last week.
So,
I will continue to view this rally as part of a second wave correction in wave ‘2’ until proved wrong.
But so far I am reasonably confident with this interpretation.

Tomorrow;
We should see a sideways market over the next few days in wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’ as shown.
Three waves up in wave ‘2’ towards 33300 will do the job nicely.
And then later in the week the market will be ripe for a reversal into wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ again.

Wave ‘ii’ must hold at 33650.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has been stuck in a sideways range hovering around 1940 for the last few sessions.
Although wave (a) blue is pretty close to complete here,
I am looking for one more drop into the 1925 area complete this pattern for wave (a).
Wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ will close out three waves down in wave (a).
And then I will look for a corrective rally in wave (b) to begin later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (a) too complete with a quick drop below 1930.

A break above 1985 again will signal wave (b) has begun.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am watching another possibility for wave (b) today as the price continues to oscillate around that 72.00 area again today.
There is a possible contracting triangle underway in wave (b) of [ii].
And if that is correct,
we will see an earlier rally into wave (c) of [ii] this week.
The target for wave [ii] remains the same at about 77.00.
This alternate count for wave (b) will be invalidated if the price drops below 71.00 again.

As for the main wave count;
this count is still valid today and I have not abandoned it at all.

Wave ‘c’ of (b) will be confirmed with a break of that 71.00 level also.
And in that scenario,
wave ‘c’ of (b) will complete at 69.00 and then rally again into wave (c) again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for ‘c’ to turn lower again tomorrow and break 71.00 again.
Wave ‘c’ should complete five waves down in the area of 69.00 over the coming days.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am struggling to fit the rally on Friday into a nice neat pattern to shown you.
That does not mean this action is a mystery here!
I am still of the view this is a terminal rally in wave (c) of [ii].
The fact that the market has challenged for a new high on Friday does not change that at all.

I will admit that I am disappointed that the impulsive decline did not continue.
But I will reset and look again this week.

Tomorrow;
I have shown a possible expanding wedge pattern in wave ‘v’ of (c) after Fridays sharp rally.
The action simply does not fit any other pattern now.

The action over the last month has setup a critical support between 4100 and 4045.
And once that goes,
then I think the market will be done with this corrective phase in wave [ii].
At that point we should move quickly into wave [iii] down again.

Its been a long wait.
But it’s coming.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver completed the move higher into wave (a) of [b] on Friday.
We have three waves up now complete i wave (a).
and wave (b) should track sideways to lower for the next few sessions as shown.
Wave (b) should complete above 22.66,
and then wave (c) is expect to turn higher again later this week.
Wave [b] is expected to complete three waves up near 24.00.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [a] to hold at 22.67.
Wave (b) should fall in three waves to form that higher low as shown.