Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Here is a very interesting report from yardini research on the monetary aggregates in Europe.

Take a look at the YoY changes and how that compares to the 2008 – 2009 change.

Very similar eh!

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/eum1m2m3.pdf

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

As the days go by EURUSD has moved ever closer to tracing out that five wave impulse pattern off the top.
The price did complete a three wave move higher in wave ‘4’ at the session high.
And now we have a move lower off that top this evening.
The price should make a new low below 1.0844 as wave ‘5’ completes.
I would like to see wave ‘i’ hit the wave ‘b’ low at 1.0713,
If that happens,
wave ‘i’ down will complete a full retracement of that previous wave ‘c’ rally.
But that may be to much to ask,
we will see.

Tomorrow;
WAve ‘4’ should hold at 1.0905.
Watch for wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ to break the wave ‘3’ low at 1.0844 at a minimum.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Wave ‘ii’ has traced out three waves up at todays high and the top came in below the 50% retracement level.
Wave ‘ii’ should be complete at the session high of 1.2545.
The price has dropped off the session high this evening again,
and this may be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ down now.
Wave ‘iii’ is set to extend this decline towards 1.2350 again in five waves.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.2545.
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 1.2440 again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has completed five waves up in wave ‘c’ of (ii) at todays highs.
And so far the price seems to have topped out below the 78.6% retracement of wave (i).
The margin for error here is getting tight,
so I want to see wave (iii) down begin now and fall back below 133.48 again to confirm this overall pattern for wave [c] green.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [c] should turn back down again and hit the 135.00 handle again to signal that wave (iii) has begun.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow has dropped further today and last nights wave count has been ruled out for wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’.
However,
I am going to stick with the idea that this decline is in wave ‘b’ for the moment.
The price action off last weeks high is still pretty corrective looking overall.
So I am looking at a three wave decline in wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’,
with a triangle middle wave as shown,
and now a new low is forming to complete wave ‘b’.
Wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’ should hold above the wave ‘i’ low at 32935.
And wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ is expected to complete this correction with a rally back to 33780 by the end of this week.

There is one possibility that will trigger the alternate count for wave ‘ii’,
that is,
if we see a sharp acceleration lower that breaks 32700 again and continues on its way,
then we can confirm that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is in force.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break above the corrective range of that triangle at 33490 to confirm that wave ‘a’ is underway.
The low at wave ‘i’ should hold at 32930.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has taken another step lower today, and another step towards the bearish wave count.
Initial support at wave ‘1’ has broken,
but that is not enough to confirm this count yet.
The more important levels lie at wave (iv) – 1976,
and wave ‘iv’ at 1949.
If the price manages to break below those solid support levels which form the ‘neckline’ of the large head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr chart.
Then we can begin to talk seriously about the possibilities for wave ‘2’ again.

So far so good here,
but more work to be done to complete a clear impulse pattern lower in wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower to break below previous support.
Ideally,
wave ‘iii’ of (i) will hit a low in the area of 1930 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The wave ‘ii’ pattern is coming along well today,
with a small corrective looking drop off the Mondays highs now in place.
The price has now traced out wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ of ‘ii’,
with wave ‘c’ left to rally above 72.00 again to complete three waves up at a lower high.
When that completes,
then we can look lower again into wave ‘iii’ of (i) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 69.35 at wave ‘i’ pink.
Wave ‘c’ should top out in the area of 72.00 again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The market has spent another day lounging around the 4110 area without really doing anything to confirm or deny the main count yet.
I am willing to stick with the main count until the market proves me wrong here,
and that will happen if the market breaks 4150 again marked the wave ‘2’ high.
The more we go on here,
the more crucial it is that we see a sharp drop back below 4040 again to confirm wave ‘iii’ of (i).
So I think I will give this wave count one more day to see if the market can confirm the pattern with another impulsive more lower.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to pull the market lower and break 4040 again and rule out the alternate count for wave ‘v’.
The wave ‘2’ high at 4050 must hold.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver managed a new low today by breaking the wave (iii) low at 23.72.
The action into this low is a little choppy though,
And the decline into todays new low looks like a three wave pattern.
So,
I am looking at a possible alternate count for wave (iv) as an expanded flat correction.
Wave ‘c’ of (iv) should top out with a break of 24.20 again tomorrow.
And wave (v) should then head lower again towards 23.50 to complete five waves down in wave [a] by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) complete and expanded flat pattern as shown.
Wave (v) of [a] should then turn lower again.