Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Some interesting charts to start the day!

Three separate articles claiming the end of the USD is near on zerohedge today.
That has to be a at least a recent record.
I am tracking these headlines to give a reading on the popular sentiment on the USD.
And I have not seen people this fearful and bearish on the USD for quite some time.
This is the type of sentiment that usually marks a turn for the dollar,
so I think its worth watching the next week or so for signs that the USD has bottomed.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Looking at the alternate count for wave (ii), in red, first tonight.
The idea here is that an expanded flat wave (ii) of [iii] is already underway.
And this weeks high is wave ‘b’ of that wave (ii).
And wave ‘c’ of (ii) should fall back below 1.0713 at the wave ‘a’ low to complete the pattern.

The main count is calling for a larger decline in wave (c) of [ii].
With a minimum target at 1.0515.
There is no confirmation of either count again today which is a little frustrating.
So lets see if tomorrow will confirm at least a short term top.
And we will see which count best fits the coming decline next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (c) to fall back to 1.0787 to signal wave (c) has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I admit that the pattern off the top is not very impulsive yet.
but the price did pip below the wave ‘iii’ high at 1.2424 today,
and that does suggest a possible short term turn is opening up here at least.

There are two important supports just below the price now.
wave ‘iv’ at 1.2274,
and wave (a) at 1.2201.
A break below that support band will confirm wave (i) of [c] is underway.
I know that is a ways below us here,
but this market is sitting at a triple top at 1.2450,
and both previous times the price dropped 600 pips off this level.
So there is nothing out of the ordinary in a turn here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to begin with a break of 1.2274.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

It seems to short term path for the USD is in limbo this week as no clear direction has emerged, just confusion to be honest!
USDJPY is no different,
we have the expectation of a rally into wave [iii],
but the price gave us a very deep retracement in wave [ii] instead.
At the moment,
the price seems to be building a possible higher low off wave ‘2’ red at 129.66.
Wave [ii] green is holding at 130.60.
And now I need to see a five wave rally into wave (i) of [iii] to confirm this pattern.
I would like to see wave (i) of [iii] retrace most of the loss of this weeks decline.
so that gives a possible target at 133.00 for wave (i).

We have work to do here too!

Tomorrow;
As long as the price holds above wave [ii] at 133.59,
then I can stick with this pattern.
If that level breaks,
I will have to go back to the drawing board again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market is flat again today and so far the top at wave ‘ii’ continues to hold.
I can’t add much to last nights update after today,
because the market has given us no clues to the next move yet.
You know what Im looking for here.
A five wave decline to signal that wave ‘ii’ is done and wave ‘iii’ is underway.

It’s been a nail biting few days for me and my outlook as you know,
the market has been refusing to acknowledge any reality regarding the worsening economic position across the globe,
The entrenched idea still lives,
that the Fed will rescue the market from any trouble ahead by dropping rates and thereby fueling another rally.

No one has bothered to stop for a moment and think that maybe the Fed is trying to break the link between the market and monetary policy.
And maybe the fed will call that bluff,
by raising rates to cause a market crash!

That would break the cycle of fed induces panic market rallies alright.
It sure seems like that is what they are up to these days!

Tomorrow;
The first level of interest here lies at the wave ‘a’ high at 32770.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is in play.

Only a break of 31430 again will confirm that count,
that can happen quite quickly these days so don’t rule it out!

Lets see how we end the week here,
a nice impulsive decline would be ideal in wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold seems stuck in a small correction in wave ‘4’ of ‘v’ today.
I am looking for a five waev pattern in wave ‘v’ to complete tomorrow.
And then the long awaited wave (ii) should take over next week.
1880 is the target level for that wave (ii) correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to compelte five waves up as shown.
Wave ‘a’ of (ii) should then turn lower and break 1949 again to begin wave ‘ii’.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Oil has gone sideways for another day and this looks more and more like a triangle wave (iv) now.
The price is moving tightly around 80.00 now,
and one more push above 83.00 will do it for wave (v) of [c] I think.
When that happens I will then look for a top in wave ‘2’ again.

Tomorrow;
Wave (iv) should complete above 79.70.
and then wave (v) should head higher again to break the wave (iii) high at a minimum.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is holding below the wave (ii) high again this evening,
but the action is not enough to draw any major conclusions yet at least.
I am looking for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to break the wave ‘b’ low at 3951.
When that happens,
then we will be facing that major downdraft in a third of a third acceleration.
That is the wave I have been warning of for a while I know,
but when it comes,
then people will see why I go on so much about the bearish pitential that is building in the pattern.

Right now, its a wait and see period for this market.
It looks like I am going to have to wait until next week for any major action here.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if wave ‘i’ can push lower in an impulsive manner.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver completed three waves down today and then spiked higher off the session low again.
I have altered the wave count slightly today to allow for a larger five wave pattern in wave (v) blue.
And that pattern should complete with another break above 25.12 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for five waves up to complete in wave (v) blue.
This in turn will complete five waves up in wave [i] green to lead to a sizable correction in wave [ii] coming our way.