Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Don’t get annoyed with me!
I am going to keep this update short and sweet,
because it’s my wedding anniversary tonight and I want to cook dinner for my wife.

I have included some alternate counts tonight for a few of the markets.
But apart from that,
there is very little change after todays action.

On the economic side,
employment data is finally catching up with reality after todays job openings data.
On the back of that,
unemployment data is going to start ticking higher in a meaningful way pretty soon now.

I was pretty interested in the reaction in the metals markets today after that data release.
Metals are spiking higher as a reaction to every piece of data – no matter what that data speaks to.
I am taking this as a pretty late stage rally sign to be honest.
At this point people only see higher prices no matter what.
Cue the harsh reversal coming our way.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

the alternate count for EURUSD shows a possible wave (ii) expanded flat already underway.
In this case we will see a decline towards 1.0650 in wave (ii) of [iii] over the next few days.
The main caunt has not been ruled out just yet,
but the next leg down is required pretty soon in order to stick with that idea for wave (c) of [ii].

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable may have made a new high above 1.2447 today but this rally can still be viewed as wave [b] of ‘B’.
with wave [c] expected to turn sharply lower in five waves to complete an expanded flat correction wave ‘B’.
I have not shown an alternate count here because I am pretty confident that this is a three wave rally into the highs of wave [b].
We should see a drop into wave (i) of [c] this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has dropped in three waves off that recent rally high.
The rally in wave [i] was not as large as I wanted,
but as long as the price can build this higher low in wave [ii] now,
then I think the larger bullish count is safe.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

A very small drop in the Dow today may be the beginning of something bigger,
at least that is my hope after that extended rally in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ carried on much longer than I wanted.
If the top tick for wave ‘ii’ is now in place,
then we should see wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) begin with a solid five wave decline to fall into the 3200 area again.
32770 at the wave ‘a’ high is the first level to watch as a signal that wave ‘1’ is underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The triangle for wave ‘iv’ was confirmed today with that spike higher to break 2009.
A five wave pattern should complete wave ‘v’ of (i) pretty soon now
And then wave ‘a’ of (ii) should fall below 1950 again to confirm wave (ii) has begun.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Well I think that was a pretty lack luster days trade after such a strong hand move from opec yesterday.
It seems to me that there is something brewing under the surface here that is the real driver for that opec move,
my hunch is they see a significant future demand decline and they are buffering against now,
in the hope that they can keep prices buoyant by pinching the supply.

I tend to agree with the headline from Morgan Stanley here.
If demand was so great,
then there would be no need to cut supply.
Do you think that Russia actually wants to cut supply now??
I think not given the state of their budget troubles.

Like I said,
something is brewing here and its not runaway crude oil rally.
Demand destruction is coming.

Wave (v) will complete five waves up in wave [c],
and then we will see if wave ‘3’ down is finally ready to kick off.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The rally in wave ‘c’ did not manage to break above the upper trend channel line today.
In fact the price actually dropped today for the first time in a week!
This is not confirmation of the pattern,
but it is an interesting development.

It’s pretty simple what’s required here.
A five wave decline to break below the wave ‘b’ low at a minimum will signal wave ‘i’ down is underway.
Lets see how this goes over the next few days.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Another spike higher in silver and with that another possibility for the wave count.
I am thinking about moving the wave count up by one degree here.
the alternate count is similar to the main count,
and it calls for a similar corrective decline to come also.