Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I continue to wonder about the wave (b) top out scenario today.
I am confident on the 4hr count,
I think wave [ii] requires another leg down to complete a three wave correction.
but the top in wave (b) is confounding me at the moment.
the price made a good initial move lower last week,
but now that decline has been all but retraced.

It remains to be see of wave (b) of [ii] is going to break out to a new high above 1.1030.
In that case wave [ii] will take the form of an expanded flat correction.
And the next leg down will have to wait for another week before taking over again.

Tomorrow;
We should know by tomorrow evening if wave (c) will turn lower this week or not.
A break of 1.0713 will confirm wave (c) is underway.
If the price breaks 1.1030 again then I will have to concede to the expanded flat wave [ii] idea.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I am looking at anohter possibility for wave (c) of [b] is cable tonight also.
The price rallied back into last weeks highs again which invalidates the previous idea.
But,
wave (c) could be tracing out an ending diagonal here instead.
Wave (a) and (c) are still equal in length,
and the price has completed three waves up into this high in wave [b].
So,
the next step here is to complete this wave [b] rally and turn lower into wave [c] as shown.

Tomorrow;
A break above 1.2447 again will signal that the larger wave ‘B’ is tracing out an expanded flat.
In that case wave [c] of ‘B’ will have to wait for another few days to complete.

The key level for the main count lies at the wave [a] high of 1.2200.
Wave (i) will break that level to confirm wave [c] is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The main count is USDJPY is holding for the moment.
Wave (iv) of [i] is now labelled as an expanded flat correction.
The high of wave (i) is holding at 131.76.
A break of that level will invalidate this count for wave [i] up.
So I want to see that level hold as this impulsive pattern develops in wave [i] green.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i)v to hold above 131.76.
wave (v) should turn higher again tomorrow and continue towards 135.00 to complete five waves up.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The 4hr chart shows a momentum extreme has now been hit again in the DOW.
The recent acceleration into wave ‘ii’ has been a little jarring for me to be honest.
I did expect an earlier rollover into wave ‘iii’ to take over.
But that has not happened.

My base case scenario here is that wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ has extended here
and the market seems to be targeting the 78.6% retracement of wave ‘i’.
While commentators can only see upside again with a myriad of reasons behind that view,
The Fed pivot seems to be the main focus on the bullish side.
But,
I will take the opposite side of that bet as usual!

Three waves up suggests a correction higher.
Just because we have not rolled over yet,
does not mean anything!
So I will wait for an initial move lower into wave ‘iii’ down this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ to find a top early this week at or below the 78.6% retracement over wave ‘i’.
At the moment the price has just created a throw over above the upper trend channel line.
A break down into the channel again will signal a reversal underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The rally today in gold has triggered the alternate count for wave (i) now.
With last weeks sideways action now labelled wave ‘iv’,
and the spike higher today labelled wave ‘v’ of (i).
This new pattern has postponed the correction in wave (ii) until later this week.
And the minimum target for wave ‘v’ of (i) lies at the recent top at 2009 again.
Wave (ii) is coming,
gold has experienced a nice respite of late.
but this move must be corrected before a longer term advance can happen.

tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i)n to hit the 2010 level and top out after that.
We should see this rally complete by midweek.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Todays action has triggered that long held alternate count for wave ‘2’ now.
and while this may be percieved as a watershed moment in the crude oil market,
I beg to differ again!

The west is now heading into a major recession.
China is most likely already in recession.
And the middle east is falling apart again.

and what happens in recessions?
oil demand craters!
So the opec cartel have managed to stoke the price higher temporarily.
I think the economic reality over the next few years is about to blindside them completely.

Wave [c] of ‘2’ will complete and expanded flat correction in crude with a break of the 83.00 handle again.
and then we should hit a very sharp reversal into wave ‘3’ down in the coming months.

Tomorrow;
I have shown a possible five wave pattern in play for wave [c] of ‘2’.
this pattern will take another week or so to complete.
The price is only a few bucks short of that minimum target for wave [c] today.

So lets see if a five wave pattern develops as suggested this week.
And we can deal with that top and reversal idea into wave ‘3’ down in die course.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am taking a slightly different view this evening for the S&P count,
but I think this count has some merit here.

firstly,
I have stepped up this count by one degree so this correction is now labelled wave (ii) blue.
With wave (iii) of [iii] coming our way if this count holds.

Secondly.
the internal structure of wave (ii) is shown as a combination wave,
with three waves up in wave ‘a’,
a triangle wave ‘b’,
and now a five wave pattern higher in wave ‘c’ should complete wave (ii) very soon.
the high of wave ‘b’ lies at 3951.
A break below that level again will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete below 4195 again.
and wave ‘i’ of (iii) should break the wave ‘b’ low at 3951 at a minimum.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has stumbled forward for another day without that dropping into wave (a) of [ii].
I am just going to remain patient here for the next few days until that turn begins.
the pattern requires a solid correction back towards 21.00 again to setup for a larger rally in wave [iii].
and this rally has gone too far, to fast now without a healthy correction.
The pattern seems complete in wave [i].
And so,
all I can do is wait to see if this week brings the expected decline.

Tomorrow;

Wave ‘iv’ lies at 22.80 and wave (a) of [ii] should break that level with ease.
So lets see if the price can challenge that level over the next few days to begin wave [ii] down.