Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

David Rosenberg

@EconguyRosie

Take a good hard look at this chart and tell me we are heading into a ‘soft’ or ‘no’ landing. More like a ‘crash’ landing. Philly Fed at a level that is 8 for 8 on the recession call and with no head fakes.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am taking a little bit of a different tack on EURUSD this evening.

The pair has recovered quite well off last weeks sharp decline,
This action can be viewed as a ‘i’ ‘ii’ decline as I suggested on Fridays night,
but because of that deep retracement today,
I am looking at a new five wave pattern for wave (a) blue into last weeks lows,
and now wave (b) is back in the picture again,
with todays highs marking the top of wave ‘a’ of (b).
Wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ should track sideways again for the next few days if this count is correct.
And then later in the week I will look for wave (c) to turn lower again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ to form a higher low above 1.0515 by midweek.
Wave ‘c’ of (b) should complete near 1.0770 at the 50% retracement level by Thursday evening.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Have a look at the new count on the 4hr chart tonight for some context.

I have relabeled wave ‘A’ red as a five wave rally into the late January highs.
Wave ‘B’ is underway off that high at 1.2450.
And after the action of the last few days which seems to be a three wave rally,
I have labelled this rally as wave [b] of ‘B’.

I now think we have another week left to complete a decline in wave [c] of ‘B’.
Wave [c] should break below 1.1804 again in five waves.

The hourly charts shows an expanded view of this new count for wave ‘B’ red.
Wave [a] of ‘B’ completed at 1.1800.
Wave [b] has retraced higher in three waves so far and the highs of the session today are close to hitting the 78.6% retracement level at 1.2308.
Wave [b] should complete tomorrow,
and then prices should turn lower again into wave [c] to break the wave [a] low at 1.1800 again in five waves.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [b] to top out very soon near the 78.6% level at 1.2308.
Wave (i) of [c] should begin by midweek.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is very close to a final low for wave [c] of ‘2’ now,
I am watching the development of an ending diagonal pattern in wave [c].
This pattern requires one more drop into the 130.00 area again to complete five waves.
And once that happens,
then I will turn my focus higher into wave [i] of ‘3’ and the initial target for wave [i] lies at the previous wave [b] high of 135.09.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to complete with one last drop into wave (v) of [c] near 130.00 to complete wave ‘2’ red.
We should see a reversal rally back into wave [i] of ‘3’ pretty soon.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow gets a stay of execution today, again!
The decline last Friday did not develop into wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ as I thought.
And todays trade has ended higher than Fridays close again.
So it seems something different is going on here.

The futures this morning dropped and then recovered,
which ruled out further declines into wave ‘iii’ pink.
so basically we have a larger flat correction in play for wave ‘2’ black.
but this wave count is still suggesting wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ will turn lower again this week.
The target area for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ lies at the 30200 area where wave ‘1’ and ‘3’ reach equality.

So we have some small changes,
but the bigger bearish picture remains intact this evening.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave ‘2’ to complete with a possible break of 32340 to complete this flat correction.
WAve ‘3’ of ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break below the wave ‘1’ low at 31420 again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

An early spike higher this morning has set a new top for wave (i) blue.
And now this evening the price is sitting back at a lower high again.

The pattern around this new high has completed a small head and shoulders reversal.
So I am again looking at the possibility that wave (ii) is underway off todays high.

Wave (ii) should trace out three waves down with a target area between 1907 and 1883 as shown.
I prefer the deeper retracement level for wave (ii) but I will just have to wait and see on that one.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘a’ of (ii) to fall back into the price territory of the previous wave ‘iv’ correction at about 1940 again.
WAve ‘b’ should form a lower high by midweek,
and wave ‘c’ of (ii) should be complete by the end of the week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The pattern in crude continues sideways today and because of that I must change the wave count slightly.
I am now suggesting that todays lows completed the wave (iii) of [iii] decline.
The pattern off that low today traced out three waves up,
which suggests wave (iv) is now underway.

Wave ‘a’ of (iv) is set at this evenings high,
wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ are expected to continue sideways over the coming week.
And the initial target for wave (iv) lies at about 70.00 again.
That will top out at the previous wave ‘iv’ high,
and once that completes I will look lower into wave (v) again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ of (iv) to complete three waves up towards 70.00 again this week.
I would like to see the wave [i] low hold at 72.50 again this week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am little bit perplexed by the short term pattern in the S&P today.
The market is still holding a lower high below the wave ‘2’ top at 3975.
So the main wave count is still valid this evening.

But the initial decline off the wave ‘2’ high has traced out a three wave pattern lower.
This complicates the pattern for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’,
as wave ‘iii’ down should start with a five wave decline.

I am willing to give this pattern another day to clear up whats going on here.
If the market drop sharply below the wave ‘1’ support at 3809 again that will confirm wave ‘3’ is underway.
But for the moment I am forced to sit and wait for some clear direction in the action.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to turn lower and break support at 3809 again to confirm the main pattern.
A break of the wave ‘2’ high at 3975 will invalidate the count for wave ‘2’.
So I would like to see that wave ‘2’ high hold again tomorrow.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The action today is suggesting a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (v) completed at the session low.
And now I am looking for one more pop above 22.70 to complete five waves up in wave (v) of [i].
This pattern is searching for a reversal pattern to begin wave [ii] down this week.
And even though the price has held up quite well lately,
I think this pattern is due a steep correction to form a bullish higher low at wave [ii].
And once that happens,
then I can turn bullish in the longer term.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete.
WAve (a) of [ii] should drop back below 22.00 and into the range of the previous wave (iv) correction by midweek.