Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

How many back failures does it take to start the next depression,
answer,
well, none!

If banks start failing then the depression is already underway!

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Another new lower high has been set today after a spike rally to end wave ‘c’ of (b).
I still favor the idea that this rally is all part of a correction higher in wave (b) of [ii].
The action off the wave (a) low has traced out a clear three wave move.
And even though the rally into todays high is impulsive looking,
the price is still holding below the 50% retracement level of wave (A) at 1.0777.

At this point my outlook remains the same for EURUSD,
I think we will see a further drop in wave (c) towards that 10200 area in a week or so,
and that level should form a sustainable low to build a larger rally.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to top out and wave ‘i’ of (c) to turn lower again.
A break below the 1.0523 level will signal wave (c) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is forcing me to think on the bullish side earlier than I expected to.
It looks like this rally off the wave ‘B’ low is impulsive enough,
and large enough,
to signal that wave ‘B’ is in-fact complete at 1.1800,
and if that is true,
then we should see a five wave rally higher into wave ‘C’ over the coming months.
with a target for that wave ‘C’ high near the 1.35 area to complete a larger three wave rally in wave (2) as seen on the daily chart.

That recent rally has not confirmed the larger bullish count,
but it is definitely worth preparing for that possibility now.
And in that scenario we should see a bullish higher low build at wave [ii] over the next few weeks.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘B’ to hold at 1.1802.
Wave [i] of ‘C’ should complete five waves up by the middle of this week.
and then wave [ii] should correct lower in three waves below 1.20 as shown.
Once wave [ii] completes,
then I will be looking higher into wave [iii] by next week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I have taken a slightly different view on the recent decline this evening.
The price has fallen far enough to suggest this is actually a higher degree wave in operation here.
I am looking at the idea that wave [iv] of ‘1’ is now complete at these lows.
This pattern requires a rally to break back above 135.00 early this week in wave (i) of [v].
And then wave [v] should continue higher in five waves to break 138.00 over the coming week.

Overall the larger wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ should track sideways for the rest of the month to complete a buloish higher low again.
But we are a long way from confirming this pattern now.
I need to see a recovery this week in waves (i) and (ii) to signal this pattern is correct.
A break below 131.59 again will cause me to rethink the waves ‘1’ and ‘2’ rally.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold at 132.28,
wave (i) of [v] to turn higher and break 135.00 again.
Wave (ii) blue should form a higher low later this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

If the next BIG credit event is now kicking off,
then I must say todays market reaction is subdued, almost to the point of comatose as a significance of these bank failures.

The market has dropped in five waves off the wave ‘ii’ high at 33570 now.
I have labelled that recent decline as wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to kick off the next leg down in wave (iii).

And wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’ is either complete at the overnight high at 32360,
or we will see a larger three wave corrective rally above 32360 tomorrow.
The short term action today has just not cleared up that pattern yet.

Once wave ‘2’ does complete,
then I suspect we will see some fireworks to the downside in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) later this week.
The Fibonacci extension of wave ‘i’ pink suggests a target for wave ‘iii’ pink at 30300.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to complete a clear corrective lower high and then turn lower into wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’.
IF the market moves sharply lower tomorrow,
that will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is already underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I am going to hedge my bets tonight on the favored wave count as you can see on the hourly chart.
The rally today has brought the bullish count for wave [iii] up back to life again.
But I will add to that one caveat,
there is not enough evidence yet to confirm the bullish count.
And because of that,
I am sitting on the fence until the action confirms wave [iii] up.

The rally off last weeks lows is impressive for sure,
but there is also a viable explanation for this rally in terns of the main wave count for wave [ii] green.
Todays highs can be labelled wave ‘c’ of (b).
where wave (b) has retraced just above 62% of wave (a).
And in this scenario wave (c) of [ii] is left to complete three waves down near the 1750 level.

I know it may not look likely tonight that gold can fall back into 1750 again,
but I am just suggesting that we keep this pattern in mind before jumping off the deepend!

Tomorrow;
IF the price falls sharply off these highs at 1913 again,
I think that will confirm wave ‘i’ of (c) is underway.

However,
A corrective decline off this rally will favor the bullish alternate count as shown.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil took a big hit this morning and the price actually matched the February lows again at the session low.
The market bounced just as vigorously off that session low which leaves the wave count in a small dilemma.

I have shown todays action as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to begin wave (iii) down.
In this scenario,
wave ‘ii’ must hold below 77.50,
and wave ‘iii’ down must break below 72.50 again and continue lower for the rest of the week as wave (iii) develops.

I am not convinced on this wave count yet though.
I want to see that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) decline take over in order to confirm the count.
A break of 77.50 again will invalidate this short term count.

Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) must hold at 77.56.

Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to hold at todays highs.
Wave (iii) down must continue lower for the rest of this week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I have labelled todays small lower high as the initial move into wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’.
The action is still quite choppy today so this pattern has not been confirmed yet.
But if the market moves lower again tomorrow in an impulsive manner,
that will give confidence to the idea that wave ‘iii’ is well underway here.

I am looking at the 3700 level as an initial target for wave ‘iii’ pink.
That level marks the 162% extension of wave ‘i’ pink.
3763 marks the low of the previous wave (b) of wave [ii] as seen on the 4hr chart.
A break of that level will drive another nail in the coffin of any bullish alternate count.
And of course that will increase the probability of the larger bearish count for wave [iii] down.
So there is a lot hanging on that 3760 level,
and this decline into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to hold at 3937.
Wave ‘3’ black should trace out a five wave decline to break 3763.
And the larger wave ‘iii’ should continue lower in five waves as shown for the next few sessions.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am switching to the bullish count this evening after todays rally in silver.
Silver and bitcoin caught the biggest tailwinds from the weekend chaos.
I am pretty sure I don’t like the idea that silver and bitcoin are trading in a 1.0 correlation here,
but that’s how the markets are playing out today at least.

If last weeks lows is the final low for wave (2) blue now,
then we should see a higher low build off that 19.90 level this week as shown.

Wave [i] of ‘1’ of (3) may not be complete at todays highs,
but I think we will see a top in wave [i] pretty soon.
And then a sharp correction lower again in wave [ii] by the end of this week will create a very interesting point in this pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] to top out by midweek.
Wave [ii] should be equally as sharp and retrace quite deep into the wave [i] rally.
But a higher low will signal a bullish divergence is building here.