Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Just a general reminder: Low unemployment does not mean no recession is coming. In fact, historically speaking, it always signals that one is indeed coming. The question is the timing.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is sitting on the support line this evening at wave ‘iv’ pink.
I was looking for wave ‘a’ of (a) to break this level,
to signal that the top is in for wave [i] and that wave [ii] is underway.
I think we are close enough here to take that as a bearish signal.
The question now is wave ‘a’ tracing out five waves down or three waves down.
That should be answered on Monday.

Moday;
Watch for that wave [i] high to hold from here on as wave [ii] completes.
Wave (a) should trace out at least three waves down.
And I want to see a break below 1.0800 again to complete wave ‘a’.

I suspect we are going to see a significant decline now back towards the 1.01 handle again to complete wave [ii] oer the coming month.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable moved sharply lower today and I think this is enough to signal wave [c] is now underay.
The low of the session broke below the wave (b) low at 1.2080.
And I am tracking a five wave decline in wave (i) of [c] now.
Wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ of (i) should continue lower to hit the 1.1950 area to complete.
Wave (ii) should track higher next week to complete a lower high as shown.

Monday;
watch for wave (i) of [c] to complete five wave down near 1.1950 by Monday evening.
The price will consolidate for a day in wave (ii).
and then a larger decline should take over in wave (iii) later in the week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY spiked higher today in line with a possible wave ‘i’ of (iii) pattern.
The wave (ii) pattern worked well and the price held above the invalidation level in the overnight session to confirm the correction.
The USD rallied on the back of that strange jobs report,
but I suspect the market was just looking for something to kick them into gear,
the USD has been oversold for a while now,
and the wave count was signalling a possible reversal in the making.

If wave (ii) is now in play here,
then we should see a continued rally over the coming week and a five wave pattern in wave (iii) should take us back above 135.00 again in due course.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market is actually still holding below the the highs of the week even after todays over optimistic jobs number.
This is obviously nothing to hang your hat on just yet,
but I do find it interesting that the stock market was completely unimpressed with that jobs report.
Is there a touch of exhaustion setting in here.
Have we finally hit a point where the market says ‘enough’?

We have yet to see wave ‘i’ of (iii) turn lower to confirm the downtrend is back.
But I can see that possibility is rising again after this weeks action.
I have mentioned the risks of a ‘waterfall’ type third wave decline over the last month,
and so far I have been wrong.
But I just can’t shake what the pattern is telling me here.
we are at a very risky point of extreme optimism and lagging internals here.
This rally is well over extended here,
and we could see a trap door open up any day now.

I will continue to wait patiently and expect the turning point to come sooner rather than later.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at this weeks highs.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 32900 again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Finally I have some action to write about in gold!

The price broke the initial wave ‘iv’ support today
and I think we have seen a big enough decline to suggest wave ‘a’ of (a) is now done.
The price is holding at the lows of the session tonight,
and if wave ‘a’ is done here,
we should see a corrective rise on Monday in wave ‘b’ of (a).
Wave ‘c’ of (a) will complete three waves down near 1820 or there about.
That should take us up to midweek next week to finish that first wave down in wave [ii].
The overall correction in wave [ii] green should take most of the month of February to complete.

Monday;
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to trace out three waves down over the next few sessions.
The high at wave [i] at 1959 must hold from here on.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is hitting a new low today and I have to admit, even I did not see this one coming!

The wave (i) decline has almost completely retraced the wave (c) rally now.
And because of that we can be more confident that wave [iii] is now underway.

I have shown a possible alternate for this action also,
I think this alternate count is also a good explanation of the action,
so I can’t be too dogmatic here.

Monday;
If wave (i0 is now complete,
then we should see a rally back into the previous wave ‘iv’ highs at 78.00 over the first few days of next week.

Once we have that corrective lower high in place,
then we can look for wave (iii) of [iii] to begin.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is holding below the highs of the week also today which is a welcome respite from the furious chase higher over the last week.
The decline is not enough to read much into it yet.
I will have wait for something bigger to materialize in order to start preparing for wave (iii).
I can point to that pivot level at 3995 as a possible signal level to indicate wave ‘i’ has begun,
but until that happens,
I will remain tight lipped here!

Monday;
I am hopeful that we have seen the last of the wild rip higher in wave (c) of [ii] now.
A break of support at 3995 again will signal that wave ‘i’ of (i) of [iii] has begun.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver took another nose dive today and that has more or less confirmed that wave (1) is now complete at this weeks highs.
The decline has broken below the corrective range of wave ‘4’ now.
and wave [a] of ‘A’ is labelled as complete.
If the price dropps again on Monday I will change the wave count to show all of wave ‘A’ red complete.
I am allowing for a larger pattern in wave ‘A’ here,
but that can change on Monday.

Monday;
Watch for a clear correction higher to signal wave [b] of ‘A’ is underway.
Watch for wave [b] to retrace back into range of the previous correction and top out with a break of 23.00 again.
Wave [c] of ‘A’ should turn lower again by midweek.

As I mentioned above,
a further decline on Monday will up the degree of this initial decline to wave ‘A’.