Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

The @CNNBusiness Fear & Greed Index is back into Greed territory … just in case you hadn’t noticed

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

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EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has essentially gone exactly sideways for two full weeks now.
we can take this in tow way,
the market is correcting here and will rally out above 1.0940 again,
or this is a topping and reversing pattern.
both interpretations are valid,
and that is the reason I can’t be too dogmatic here.

The action today has not added much clarity to the picture either,
except for the fact that the pair is lower on the day.
So,
For the moment I can continue with the idea that wave [i] is complete and wave ‘a’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (a) to continue lower and complete three waves down this week.
A break of 1.0765 will signal wave (a) of [ii] is underway.

GBPUSD

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cable is simply refusing to break above the wave ‘iii’ high at 1.2434 again today.
The action today still looks corrective within wave ‘v’,
but a new high in wave ‘v’ will simplify the count.

there is a possibility that we have a failed fifth wave of course.
In that case we do not need a new high for wave ‘v’.
A break of that wave ‘iv’ low at 1.2260 will favor the idea that wave (i) has begun now.

Tomorrow;
I am going to allow for one last high in wave ‘v’ until that wave ‘iv’ support is broken.
1.2260 is key from here on.

USDJPY.

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USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has sepnt another day within that tight range,
and because of that the triangle idea for wave (b) of [v] is still in play.
I still hold the view that the short term trend will be decided by the direction that this triangle consolidation is broken.
A break above,
and that will favor the bullish idea for wave ‘1’ of (5).
A break below and we are looking at another decline into wave (c) ov [v].

Tomorrow;
Watch for a decision on the triangle pattern.
Certainly a break above 131.60 again will confirm the bullish count.

DOW JONES.

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There is something in the water today as it seems people did not chase stocks out the door and down the street for a change!
I wonder if this has anything to do with the three wave corrective pattern completed at Fridays high?
Wave ‘ii’ is holding today,
and that is the main takaway to be honest!

I am not going to jump ahead of myself here and say that wave ‘iii’ is underway
until we see a five wave decline to break the wave ‘b’ low at 33260.
If that happens,
then I can suggest that wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is confirmed.
And then I can really look forward to that possible acceleration phase in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) of [i].
So there is a lot riding on the action in the next few sessions.

Tomorrow;
Watch for Fridays highs to hold at wave ‘ii’.
If wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is underway,
then I we should see further declines tomorrow towards that wave ‘b’ low at 33260.

GOLD

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I can legitimately say that gold has now done absolutely nothing for two weeks also.
A flat market topping and about to rool over is my base case here.
But that idea needs to be back up by a relevant wave count to suggest wave (a) is underway.
I will say though,
that all that positive media coverage of gold has come in the last few weeks,
just as the price entered a complete dead zone.
If the top is in for wave [i] here,
then the next few weeks will be dominated by a pretty savage reversal in wave [ii].
Second wave retracements after a major high or low are usually quite extreme in the % they retrace,
so I cannot rule out a break below 1700 at the very low end of the range for wave [ii].
A 50% retracement in wave [ii] gives a target at 1780.
While a 78.6% retracement gives us a target at 1686.
I think that lower target will come with a serious oversold environment,
and at that point I will be screaming to get on board for wave [iii]!

Lets see how this week goes first though!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] to hold at 1949.
Wave ‘iii’ of (a) should break below 1895 at a minimum to favor this bearish count.

CRUDE OIL.

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Crude is another market that is letting out steam and beginning to roll over in the required direction again.
The price has broke the previous wave ‘iv’ low again today which is the first step in signalling that wave [ii] is actually done,
and wave (i) of [iii] is beginning.

If this move lower is actually wave ‘iii’ of (i) now,
then I would like to see a break of the 75.00 level again to complete wave (i) before any correction higher again into wave ‘iv’ begins.
There is more to do in order to confirm the larger wave [iii] is underway here,
but step by step,
we might get to that critical wave (i) low this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to complete five waves down and break the 75.00 again.

S&P 500.

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A retreat from the highs today is in line with the wave count at least,
but I cannot say that there is confirmation on that wave count for wave ‘i’ yet.
And that is waht I am looking for this week.
Not exactly a hard acceleration lower,
but a definite move lower in a five wave pattern that breaks the wave ‘b’ support is my aim here.
A break of initial support at wave ‘b’ will strengthen the case for wave (iii).
And a bearish lower high in wave ‘ii’ will put this market at great risk of a large acceleration lower in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave (ii) high to hold again at Fridays highs.
A five wave decline must continue lwoer tomorrow in wave ‘i’.
And if this count is correct,
then we should see a break of support by midweek.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

Silver has long been the thorn in my side and todays action is no different.
This market is refusing to confirm or deny everything I throw at it.
And even though last weeks rally in a possible wave [i] can be viewed in a positive manner,
there is nothing in todays action to confirm this new short term count.
I am going to sit on the fence until the market shows its hand,
which I hope will be soon!
So;
The low created on Friday at wave [ii] is important in terms of building a five wave pattern higher in wave ‘5’.
If that level breaks this week it will put pressure on this newe count.
And a break below 22.75 again will switch this count back to bearish mode again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold and wave [iii] of ‘5’ to turn higher and break 24.50 to complete.