Good evening to one and all.

Ok,
we are back for another week of watching the threads of the world come loose in slow motion.
All the elites are over in switzerland wineing and dining and ‘solving’ the worlds problems one champagne bottle at a time.
All the while the economic world continues to spiral downwards.
Chart after chart after chart I see each day shows the unwinding of the credit bomb that was exploded nearly three years ago as an answer to the covid panic.
This year we will pay the piper dearly for all that excess that was pumped into the system.

Apart from that I hope all you stateside enjoyed your MLK day!
Now we are back to reality and on with the show.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is off the tip of wave [i] again today and so far we have a small three wave pattern lower.
Wave [ii] is expected this week again,
and as with all corrections it is impossible yet to know what internal structure this will take.

If the price is now turning into wave [ii],
then I will need a bit more downside to confirm that pattern.
A break of the previous consolidation level at 1.0700 again will be a good start.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if wave ‘a’ of (a) of [ii] can manage a break of 1.0700 to begin this journey lower into wave [ii] this week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I am looking at a slightly different pattern developing in wave [b] after todays trade.
The price is close to the 78.6% retracement level of wave [a] now.
And the action over the last few sessions is a little too choppy to fit the previous pattern.
I am now looking at a possible wave (c) ending diagonal as a better fit for the action here.
The confirmation of this pattern will come with a break below the wave (b) low again at 1.2080 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to take over and move impulsively lower to break the wave (b) low.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is making an effort to build a higher low above the recent 127.21 low again.
Again I will say,
there is not enough evidence yet to call a low in place here.
And even though this pair has frustraed me lately,
I am as convinced as I can be that there is a big turn up coming here.
We will see if this new effort will bear fruit.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this small higher low to build this week into a more convincing impulsive pattern.
If we can break above 130.00 again I will be get a little more excited here.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I can only reiterate what I have said already above this,
todays action is welcome in regards to what I am expecting overall here.
But this is just not enough to get excited about yet!

The rally into wave (ii) has failed below the 78.6% retracement level.
That is a good development for sure.
It remains to be seen if the decline today can gain momentum over the rest of this week to trace out a meaningful five wave decline into wave ‘i’ of (iii).
That wave ‘i’ decline should bring us down towards the 32800 level again.
Only a break below 32500 again will confirm wave (iii) is underway,
so we have a whole lot of work to do here before the overall bearish pattern is confirmed.

At the moment all I can say is that the market needs to build on todays drop in order to tip the scales in favor of the bearish count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that high at wave (ii) to hold again.
I want to see this reversal build and start to take out the previous corrective lows within the wave ‘c’ rally.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Very little aciton in gold to speak on today so the pattern from Friday remains in place and valid until proven otherwise.
The price has dropped off after hitting the upper trend channel line.
The action within that decline is not very inspiring yet,
but I am willing to let this pattern run for the next few sessions to see if wave [i] has finally topped out and wave (a) of [ii] can take over.
The first level of interest here is wave ‘b’ of ‘v’ at 1867.
Below that we have wave ‘iv’ at 1824.
I break of that lower level will be enough to confirm wave [ii] has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (a) to fall below 1866 to get this pattern going in wave [ii].

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil has shrugged off the recent impulsive declines to break above that 81.00 level again today.
this action has triggered the alternate count for wave [ii].
And now I am tracking wave (c) of [ii] to a final high near the 83.00 handle this week.
That 50% retracement level of wave [i] lies at 82.77.
and the previous wave (iv) high lies at 83.29 now.
So that is two significant target levels in a very tight range here.
And that should form an irresistable target for the market to reach over the next few sessions.
What happens after that top is reached is going to be very interesting indeed.
A sudden failure after hitting will favor the idea that wave [iii] down is finally underway.

tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete a five wave pattern into that 83.00 handle.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&p did not take the same size of hit that the Dow did today.
So the state of the pattern is not as clear to see here tonight.

I am happy that the rally in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ did hit resistance at that 62% Fib retracement level.
The reaction lower has not been impressive yet at least,
but there is room to move here as the market is still well below the previous wave (ii) high.
And overall upside momentum has really decline over the last week.
So the signs are showing us that the market is running out of steam here.
All we need to confirm the wave ‘ii’ top is an impulsive reversal now.

Tomorrow;
I will be looking for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to get going this week.
A break beow 3870 again will be a very big hint that wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is lower again today and just like many markets tonight,
the internal pattern of this decline is not very clear at all.
I am happy that the recent top has held after that rally in wave (ii).
the internal pattern of wave (ii) is still a valid three waves.
So at this point we do have a corrective lower high in place at wave (ii).
All that is needed to confirm the pattern is a break of support at 23.10 to get wave (iii) underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to break the wave ‘b’ low at 23.49 again.