Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessings to you all this new year!

A new year is upon us and I do wonder what it has in store, I have a bad feeling that we are only at the beginning of sorrows here, I am going to buckle up for a bad year, maybe I will be proved wrong, time will tell.

I will be here writing about it every night either way, so let us start shall we, here goes another year!

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https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Last weeks frustrating action was answered today by a clear move back into the main pattern.
EURUSD tumbled today in wave ‘c’ of (a) to confirm this initial three wave pattern for wave [ii].

The decline off the high at wave [i] is not yet large enough to suggest wave [ii] is complete,
So I am looking for another step lower in wave (b) and (c) towards the 1.0300 area to complete wave [ii]
This pattern should take up the rest of this week at least,
but most likely we are going to be dealing with this correction in wave [ii] well into next week also.

Tomorrow;
the internal pattern in wave ‘c’ of (a) can drop again to complete five waves down in wave ‘c’.
But I suspect wave (b) will begin by tomorrow evening
and then I can track a three wave correction higher for the rest of the week.

Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete and then turn higher in wave (b).
If the price holds above 1.0519 tomorrow that will suggest wave (b) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The sharp decline today in cable has done enough to suggest that wave (c) of [a] is now complete.
The price must hold above 1.1898 tomorrow for this count to remain valid,
if the price breaks to a new low tomorrow that will signal wave (c) is extending lower.

For the moment,
I am counting the rebound off the low as wave (a) of [b] as shown.
Wave (b) may be underway already and forming a three wave correction to a higher low above 1 1898.
And then wave (c) should turn higher towards 1.2100 again to complete wave [b] later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [b] 1.1900 to hold and then to continue higher in wave (c) as shown.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY did manage to hit a new low by breaking wave [iii] again today.
This action has now completed a clear five wave decline in wave ‘C’,
but the real question is this,
has the price hit a final low for wave ‘C’ of (4) at 129.74 now.
We will see this week.

The correction in wave (4) overall has retraced as far as the previous fourth wave low formed in wave ‘4’ of (3) back in August.
and the price has dropped from 151 at the high of wave (3) to 129 today in a three wave pattern,
So wave (4) is ticking off the boxes now and we are in the area where a sustainable low should form.

The aim now is to track a five wave pattern higher off wave (4) to suggest that the low is in here.
So lets see if that will happen this week.

Tomorrow;
134.49 marks the high of wave [iv] green.
If the price can rally back above that level in five waves,
then we have a bullish signal for USDJPY in place.

Watch for 129.48 to hold and five waves up to begin in wave [i] of ‘1’ of (5).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow managed to make a very slight new high above wave ‘a’ this morning,
but that complete rally has been retraced today in quite a sharp manner.

I am not absolutely sure that wave ‘ii’ is complete at todays high,
the price has not broken down below the previous wave ‘i’ low yet at 32466.
If the market rallies again tomorrow,
that will suggest wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ is still in play here.

But,
there is enough evidence to at least begin looking for wave ‘iii’ to begin here.
and if we see a selloff again tomorrow that will favor the idea that wave ‘ii’ is done,
and wave ‘iii’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at todays high.
I would like to see wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ break below the wave ‘i’ low at 32466 again.

If this count is correct,
then this week will mark the beginning of a very long decline phase.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I have been looking at a few different interpretations of the final rally in wave ‘v’ of (i) today.
Todays new spike higher does not change anything for me regarding the larger pattern,
and I am still looking for wave (ii) to correct lower this month.

The action over the last month does fit the structure of an ending diagonal that much is true.
But the action is so choppy in wave ‘v’
that allows different combinations of internal waves to satisfy the pattern.

All this to say,
even with a new high today wave ‘v’ of (i) has pushed far enough to call it done.
And wave (ii) can not be far away.

I suspect that the rolling tops that have formed over the last few weeks have subdued momentum enough,
that it will lead to an aggressive decline when wave (ii) does finally begin.

Tomorrow;
I cannot do much here until we see an initial break below support near 1800 again.
So that is what I will be watching for this week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude actually managed a new high above 81.00 again today but those gains have been turned around completely this evening!
The decline off todays highs actually looks more aggressive than the rally into the high.
So there is still a good chance that [ii] has topped out here
and wave [iii] down has started after todays spike lower.
We will see soon enough how true that idea is.

I have shown an alternate count for wave [ii] today also.
This involves a three wave rally in wave (a),
and now an expanded flat correction in wave (b).
followed by a five wave rally into wave (c) later this week.
This alternate count will be triggered if crude forms a low above 74.00 late tomorrow,
and then turns higher in an impulsive pattern again.

Tomorrow;
The main count for wave [iii] will be confirmed with a five wave decline to break the wave (b) low at 73.40 again.
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 81.50.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am a little more suspect of this wave ‘ii’ pattern in the S&P than the Dow.

The market did not make a new high above 3892 in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ as I had suggested.
This action did not favor the previous pattern for wave ‘ii’,
so I have introduced a new count for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ tonight.

This new count shows a smaller three wave correction in wave ‘ii’.
the high of wave ‘ii’ failed below the previous fourth wave and below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Maybe this action is enough to complete wave ‘ii’,
and I am going to give this pattern the benefit of the doubt for the next few days.

The price did move sharply lower today
and because of that I am allowing the bearish pattern a chance to develop impulsively into wave ‘iii’ this week.
If the market continues lower tomorrow and breaks a new low below 3763 again,
then we have a strong indicator that wave ‘ii’ has topped out and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down is beginning now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave ‘ii’ to hold and for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to continue lower to break 3763 again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am at an impasse with Silver over the last few weeks.
I know that there is a significant decline coming for silver pretty soon.
Maybe this will coincide with the USD rally that seems to be getting underway now,
at least that trend will support the idea of a decline in silver.

Either way,
silver has rallied far enough without over the last three months without any answer to merit at least a significant correction.
I am in favor of a full five wave decline into wave ‘5’ of (C) as shown on the 4hr chart.
But even a 50% retracement of the recent rally will bring bring the price back below 21.00 again by the end of this month.

This selloff has not begun yet,
but I am looking for the initial move lower to begin this week.
A break of 22.50 again will confirm the at wave ‘4’ and begin the new decline.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 24.53 to hold and wave [i] down to begin this week.