Good evening to one and all.

The LORD’s blessings to you all tonight.

Today was a day to eat humble pie for me!

Some counts have changed after the snap rally in everything after that fed speech. I have not changed much in the larger outlook, but the sword has been lifted for a few days in some cases.

Down to business.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

A three wave pattern in developing off the high at wave (iii) this week.
Todays new low has met the minimum target for wave ‘c’ of ‘a’,
but the price has not gone as far as I would like to see to complete wave ‘a’ pink.

The market is reacting higher this evening after Powell has finished his speach.
If the price pushes back above the 1.0400 level again at wave ‘b’ black,
that will favor the idea that wave ‘b’ pink is now underway.
Wave ‘b’ pink should trace out a sideways correction around that 1.0400 level to complete a lower high,
and then turn lower again on Friday into wave ‘c’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to continue sideways and complete a corrective lower high near 1.0400.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Tonights bounce has opened up another interpretation for wave (a) down now.
I am looking at a three wave correction lower in wave (a) now.
And the choppy action over the last few days is a possible expanded flat correction in wave ‘b’.
Wave ‘c’ down should turn lower by tomorrow evening is this count is correct.
WAve (a) should find support near the 1.1800 level again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete that lower high at or below 1.2065.
Wave ‘c’ should break 1.1899 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY took a hit this evening and with that the main wave count is coming under pressure.
even though the action off the wave ‘A’ low is a little compact,
there is three waves up in place now.
So I can call wave (a) of [a] now complete at that high.

The decline this evening is now labelled wave (b),
This wave must hold above the wave ‘A’ low at 137.50.
And wave (c) is expected to turn higher by Friday evening.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave (b) to hold above 137.50.
A break of that level will put this count at risk.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

This week is trying my patience again!

The small decline off the recent top was a reasonable five wave pattern.
And although the initial support has not broken,
the market was on the verge of tracing out a bearish impulse wave off the high in wave ‘1’ and ‘2’.

This count obviously got invalidated today after the reaction spike higher after the speech from Powell today.

The problem with reaction moves like this,
is they usually reverse quite quickly so I would not bet heavily on this spike continuing into a sustained rally.
I can only suggest that wave ‘v’ has held onto the action over the last few days.
and the internal pattern of the ending diagonal in wave ‘v’ has extended.

Tomorrow;
I cant see this vertical move holding tomorrow to be honest.
The wedge pattern in wave ‘v’ is getting tighter and tighter and the rice is back at the upper trend line again this evening.
We have two more trading days this week to break the back of this fifth wave rally.
So there is still a chance that wave ‘i’ down can begin before the end of this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The wave count in gold got hammered also this evening as the everything rally has pipped above the recent top.
Wave ‘b’ can still be viewed as a correction higher in three waves.
With wave ‘b’ black tracing out a running flat at todays lows.
The rally this evening is completing wave ‘c’ of ‘b’ as shown.
The channel higher is now filled.
And the lower high is maintained for wave ‘b’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to begin with a sharp drop back below 1750 again.
Five waves down in wave ‘c’ will take a few days,
so I am looking into next week now for wave (ii) to complete.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Wave [ii] is progressing faster than I suspected it would this week.
The action continues to follow a corrective pattern so far.
the rise in wave (a) is a clear three wave rally,
wave (b) is smaller than expected, but a three wave pattern developed there too.
And now wave (c) is tracing out a five wave rally and closing in on the target area even at tpdays highs.
Wave (c) has completed three waves up and is correcting in wave ‘iv’ this evening.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) should turn higher again and hit that initial target at 82.30 by Fridays evening.
The 50% retracement level of wave [i] lies at 83.30.
so that gives us a tight target range for this correction to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete five waves up as shown in that target range from 82.30 to 83.30.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has invalidated the previous count also tonight.
That vertical spike higher broke to a new high again today and now wave ‘v’ has a new internal wave count.
A running flat wave ‘4’ is the only way to view the action over the last week.
and now the final blow off top in wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ has completed this pattern.
I don’t expect the market will hold todays rapid rally for long.
So I am again looking for wave (ii) to top out tomorrow and wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin.

Tomorrow;
As always,
the initial impulse wave off the top must complete to give us something to work with.
A break of support will add weight to the significance of the pattern off the top.
Watch for this todays rally to be retraced tomorrow with an equally heavy move lower.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has not broken to a new high tonight,
but the price is so close to doing that now that I have switched to another interpretation of wave (iv) in order to explain the recent action.
A triangle wave (iv) completed at Tuesdays low,
and now this sharp rally has brought the price to within a few cents of a new high in wave (v) of [c] of ‘4’.
As with the other knee jerk rallies that happened today across the financial markets,
I cant see this one lasting either in silver.
Wave (i) down is still on my radar even for this week.

Tomorrow;
So watch for a sign that wave (v) has run its course with a drop back into the range of the triangle wave (iv).