Good evening to one and all.

The LORD’s blessings to you all tonight.

Albert Edwards

@albertedwards99

Do people really think the tech rout is over? US tech peaked end 2021 at just over 30% of market cap, just shy of the 2000 nutty peak. Most of the recent re-rating came AFTER the 2018 Powell Pivot. This grotesque bubble blown by QE policies (like property) has a long way to fall

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Another spike lower this evening has wiped out the early rally in EURUSD,
so as it stands,
you could say we are flat on the week so far!

The internal pattern in wave ‘c’ of (ii) is still developing and I do not have a preferred way of labelling this action yet.
The new wave count has started well,
but there is just not enough downside action yet to nail down the internal pattern for wave ‘c’.

At the moment I can call todays drop the beginning of wave ‘3’ of ‘c’.
As long as the price continues to take out previous highs,
then wave ‘c’ of (ii) is the best way to view this.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘c’ to continue lower towards the wave ‘b’ low at 0.9704.
That level should be enough to support the price and allow a correction into wave ‘4’ later in the week.
0.9953 must hold at the wave ‘2’ high.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is flirting with danger again this evening,
as the price refuses to rally into wave ‘v’ of (iii).
The wave ‘i’ high at 1.1407 has not broken yet,
so there is a small chance that the bullish count will recover from here in wave ‘v’.

Each day that the rally fails to materialize is one step closer to that alternate count.
At the moment wave ‘v’ of (iii) is still a viable option.
But that rally must begin tomorrow or that alternate count will take over.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold at 1.1407 a break of that level will trigger the alternate count.
Wave ‘v’ must break 1.1646 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has not managed a new high into wave ‘v’ of (c) today and for that reason another possibility has opened up.
There is a chance that wave [b] completed a running flat correction at todays highs.
And in that case,
the reversal lower today is the beginning of wave [c] down.
the high at 148.86 must hold in order for this option to remain valid.
And wave (iii) of [c] must turn lower again as suggested in tonight’s chart.
So,
the way ahead is clear here,
wave [c] down must continue to unfold in a five wave pattern and wave [b] must hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete below 148.86 and then turn lower into wave (iii) of [c].

DOW JONES.

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DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow managed to drop off the top of a possible wave (ii) top today.
There decline is not larger enough to read a whole lot into it,
but I will try!

If wave (ii) is complete after a 78.6% retracement of wave (i),
then we should see a more rapid decline take over from here on out.
At the very least,
the top at wave (ii) must hold in order to give this market some time to attempt a turn lower.
I am looming at the wave ‘4’ low at 31850 as the initial signal level to indicate a top.
If the market manages to break through that level,
then we can look lower with a little more confidence into wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) will not be confirmed until we see a break of the wave ‘b’ low at 30000 again,
as I mentioned before,
this week is going to be interesting.

Tomorrow;
Watch for an initial break of the wave ‘4’ low at 31850 to signal that a bearish turn is in play here.
Wave (ii) must hold!

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Slowly slowly gold is making its way higher,
building higher lows from day to day without much fanfare.
This chart is also a case of not enough evidence to get excited just yet,
but The action today is hinting at the beginning of a third wave up.

Wave ‘iii’ of (i) is expected to break above 1675 this week.
That action will add weight to the bullish wave count,
but wave ‘iii’ itself will need to break 1700 again in order to confirm the pattern here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high to hold at 1630.
A break of that level will invalidate this count.
Wave ‘iii’ must continue higher in five waves now and a break of 1675 is the first sign that wave ‘iii’ is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is holding at a lower high today after a near miss a short while ago.
The high of wave (b) is still in place at 89.37,
and wave ‘iii’ of (c) must now begin with a break below the wave ‘i’ low at 84.80 again.
I will be much happier about this wave count if the price manages to break that low again.
So tomorrows trade will be critical to the short term count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave (b) to hold again.
Wave ‘iii’ down must continue lower and break the wave ‘i’ low again to confirm this pattern.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The market actually made a very small new high this morning with a gap higher at the open.
That did not last very log though,
now the market is down for the session,
and there is a reasonable chance that the sharp drop today is actually an impulse wave off the high.
We will see tomorrow if that holds true or not.

The gap to a new high this morning actually completed a nice five wave pattern within wave ‘5’ of ‘c’.
and if this count is correct here,
that completes five waves up in wave ‘c’,
and three waves up in wave (ii).
Wave (ii) managed a 50% retracement of wave (i) almost to the pip today also.
Again,
I can see mounting evidence of a top here,
but I am still waiting for that confirming price action to the downside again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to take hold of this pattern over the coming days.
A break of the wave ‘4’ low at 3746 will signal add weight to this bearish count.

SILVER.

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SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

We did get a new high today to top out wave [ii],
but I don’t this this is enough to actually change much in the bearish count.
The high today tagged the 61.8% retracement level and has turned lower again this evening.
And the internal pattern of wave [ii] now fits a complex triple combination.
If all goes well,
then tomorrow will see an impulsive decline return again in wave (i) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to take hold of the action by falling back below 18.76 again at the wave (b) low.