Good evening to one and all.

The LORD’s blessings to you all tonight.

I must apologies for any annoyance cause by a failure in the site last night.
I don’t actually know what happened other than there was a software update recently and that may have caused a failure.
Things seem to be working ok right now,
but let me know if you are having problems with login etc, tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is not co-operating with the wave count again today.
Rather than an acceleration into wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
we actually get a reversal which does not look corrective.
So,
at this point we have three waves up into Tuesdays highs.
And that action is just screaming upside correction now.

I am taking another view on wave (ii) blue tonight because of todays drop.
Wave ‘b’ of (ii) is complete at the 0.9876 high.
And now wave ‘c’ of (ii) should fall to break the wave ‘a’ low at 0.9631 again.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete in that sweet spot below 0.9631 and above 0.9535.
I know this is a tight margin for error,
but wave (ii) must not break that wave (B) low again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I am not quite so put out by todays decline in cable.
There is a slight new pattern in play here for wave (i) and (ii).
With todays new low closing out the wave (ii) correction.
I am still looking for that wave (iii) rally to push higher towards the end of the week.
Wave [c] of ‘A’ is still in play here as a five wave rally.
and that could see a top near 1.20 when this is complete.

I cannot rule out the alternate count for wave [b] yet.
Todays action favors the main count but only a rally back above 1.1495 again will rule out that alternate wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete soon and turn higher into wave ‘i’ of (iii).
A break of 1.1495 will confirm the pattern.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Another day and another new count for USDJPY.
The rally here is relentless over the last week.
And because of that I am forced to rethink the internal count for wave [v] green.
The best fit for this continued rally here is an extended wave (iii) of [v].
So I will have to wait for the big reversal to happen for another week or so if this count is correct.
Any decline off these highs is likely a correction in wave (iv).

The 4hr chart is showing a momentum reversal underway.
So I know that we must be near a trend change now.
The price has tagged the upper trend line of the larger channel.
I will wait and see if that has any effect on this rally.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to find a top and then the end of this week should bring a turn into wave (iv).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am looking at todays action as a possible correction lower within wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
the action is in three waves off the top so far,
and this does suggest wave ‘c’ of ‘iii’ will test the 61.8% retracement level of wave ‘i’ this week.
That idea allows for another pop above 31000 again to complete this rally by Fridays close.
We will see tomorrow if this idea holds.

If the price turns lower in a more impulsive fashion,
then I will look for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to take over and fall into support at 28590 again over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to show signs of a top in that Fibonacci resistance area between the 50% and 62% retracement levels.
It would be ideal if wave ‘c’ could top and turn lower into wave ‘1’ by tomorrow evening.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The decline in gold has gone far enough that I am now forced to eat humble pie again!
Nothing new there I suppose.

The decline has not ruled out the bullish count,
but the action looks like it will push to a new low this week.
and if that is the case,
I want to look at the pattern that will allow for that to occur.

The 4hr chart;
I have shown a possibility for the wave [v] decline that will allow for one more low to complete wave (v) of [v].
Even though the recent rally was very impulsive looking,
a new low will rule that action as a correction higher in wave (iv).
With wave (v) of (v) now underway.

the 1hr chart;
I am struggling to see a correction in the recent rally to be honest.
But if we break to a new low then we have no choice but to view that as corrective to the upside.

the decline over the past few days is developing into a five wave pattern now.
and the recent whipsaw sideways move is now best viewed as a running flat wave ‘iv’.
The renewed decline in the last two days takes the wave ‘v’ of (v) label.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) blue to fill that declining trend channel again over the coming few days.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) is expected to complete five waves down.
And wave into the new lows and complete near 1580 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I can’t escape the idea that todays small rise was actually a correction higher in three waves.
This idea changes things slightly for the hourly count.
Wave ‘iv’ is now shown as complete at todays highs,
and wave ‘v’ down should follow to break the 80.00 level again and complete wave (i).

This count will fail if the price rallies above 86.89 again.
that will case a break of the wave ‘i’ low and that will rule out this current interpretation.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to top out as a correction and wave ‘v’ to break the wave ‘iii’ low at a minimum.
That gives a minimum target at 81.32 to complete wave ‘v’.
But I am looking for a little more to close out wave (i) blue.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

We do have three waves up in place for wave (ii) blue now,
and the market has come off the boil since hitting that wave (ii) top.

For the same reason as I stated in the DOW,
I am not absolutely convinced that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway yet after todays sideways action.
And for that reason I am open to a pop again in wave ‘c’ of (ii) towards the previous wave ‘iv’ top at 3806 again.

I know I am sitting on the fence here regarding the short term possibilities,
but I do think that tomorrow action should do enough to select which count is correct for wave (ii).

Tomorrow;
a break of 3767 again will trigger the larger wave (ii) idea.
And a decline should begin again in wave ‘i’ of (iii) off that top.

If the market fails completely tomorrow that will favor the idea that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway now.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I have a hunch that wave [ii] is now yet complete after todays action.
the decline off the wave (a) high still looks quite corrective looking.
And so the wave (b) label fits quite well here.
If this is correct,
wave (c) will turn higher and break 19.00 again pretty soon.

Then once wave [ii] is complete,
we should see the main decline continue into wave [iii] over the coming weeks ahead.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to hold above 18.08.
Wave (c) should break 18.93 at a minimum.