Good evening to one and all.

The LORD’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

A quiet day overall for EURUSD today,
with a small correction off Mondays highs holding the price action all day.

I can view this action as another impulse wave building to begin wave ‘iii’ up.
Wave’s ‘1’ and ‘2’ should form a higher low in the trend channel and then continue higher in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ tomorrow.
Wave ‘2’ will hit the trend channel near 0.9800,
and if we see a break above the wave (i) high again at 1.0000 that should be enough to confirm the overall count for wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 0.9706.
A break of 0.9874 should be enough to signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is in play.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

In general cable continues to move impulsively to the upside and correct lower.
And as long as that dynamic continues then the main count should build strength and upside momentum over the coming weeks.

Todays decline is in three waves and that should complete wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is expected to rally back above 1.1494 and confirm the main count.

Tomorrow.
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 1.1152.
Wave ‘iii’ should do most of the heavy lifting in wave (iii) blue.
And that means wave ‘iii’ can easily break 1.1500 if this count is correct.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is steamrolling over every attempt to reverse the action these days.
I am pretty certain that this pair will reverse soon,
into wave (i).
But as I mentioned last night,
I am stuck in limbo here with nothing to work with yet.

the pattern in wave ‘v’ is complete,
and even though we have not seen a reasonable decline in an impulse wave yet,
I am confident that a USD turn is beginning now and that will kick off the USDJPY reversal.

The 4hr chart is rolling over from extreme highs in momentum,
this is no timing device,
but it is a good warning signal for an impending decline.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a possible impulse wave lower to begin in wave (i) blue.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW is stalling at the current highs tonight.
And while a new high was made in the recent rally today,
so far the price action seems to be rejecting the new highs already with a sharp reversal off the top.

Overall the price has traced out three waves up off the recent lows.
And this action does not fit last nights wave count very well.

With this in mind,
I have reconsidered the pattern in wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ tonight.
with wave ‘ii’ now coming to a close at these levels after a clear three wave rally.
The market has topped out between the 50% and 62% retracement levels now,
so if we are going to see a reversal into wave ‘iii’ down,
then this is a good area for that to reversal to begin.

The alternate count is close to the invalidation level now.
if the price breaks above 31220 again that will create an overlap in wave ‘i’ and ‘iv’ and that will not fit an impulse wave down in wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to top out now.
If we see an initial decline below 29625 again that will signal wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

We are at a critical decision point in gold now.
The price is holding above the wave [ii] high at 1640 this evening but the margin for error here is way to tight here.
If we break 1640 again I am afraid the price may just cascade lower to complete wave wave (4) near 1550 again.
We should know soon enough which way this action is going to break.

I really do want to see that wave (i) rally resume tomorrow and for wave (i) to break above 1700 again before the end of the week.
That is the ideal situation here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to be confirmed with a break above 1683 again.
1640 must hold for this wave (i) count to remain valid.
the whole bullish wave count will be invalidated with a break of 1615 again.

This is a testing time for gold,
the next few days will settle the matter I suspect.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude did fall below the wave ‘i’ high at 82.60 today and that means more progress was made in this bearish pattern.
A the moment I can view todays action as a continuation of wave ‘iii’ of (i).
If this is correct,
then we should see a five wave internal pattern develop in wave ‘iii’ of (i) over the coming days.
Wave ‘iii’ will complete with a break of the 80.00 handle again in this scenario.
Wave ‘iv’ of (i) will then correct higher and complete below 84.60 at the wave ‘i’ low.

Overall I am looking for a clear five wave pattern in wave (i) to complete by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower and trace out five waves with a break of 80.00 again.
The price must not break above 84.60 as wave ‘iii’ completes.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

the price has completed three waves up in the S&P at todays high.
The market also hit the minimum target for wave ‘c’ with a break above 3722 at the wave ‘a’ high.
And the action has reached into the price territory of the previous wave ‘iv’ high.

These are the very first indicators to look for to suggest corrective a pattern is complete.
I can point to this evenings drop which adds to the idea that the correction is in wave (ii) is wrapping up here.

The only fly in the ointment here is that alternate count for wave (ii) now.
It is possible that the three wave rally can also be viewed as wave ‘a’ of a larger flat correction in wave (ii).
this is the main alternate count now,
and we will know by the end of this week if this count is correct or not.

Tomorrow;
As I mentioned this weekend,
I am going to stick with the most bearish outlook until the count is proved wrong.
So I am now looking for wave ‘i’ of (ii) to begin and fall in five waves over the next few days to complete with a break to a new low in the pattern.
Lets see if tomorrow brings the initial declines into wave ‘i’ of (iii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am looking at todays action as a three wave correction in wave (b) of [ii].
Wave (b) has completed a higher low now,
and if this pattern is correct here,
then we should see a rally in wave (c) to break above 18.26 at a minimum.
And then wave (c) should top out this three wave correction in the 19.30 area by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a small rally to break above 18.92 again to signal wave (b) is complete.
Wave (c) will compete on Thursday at the earliest.

the low at wave [i] must hold at 18.08.