Good evening to you folks.

God’s blessings to you all tonight.

“It’s A Global Margin Call. I Hope We Survive”

The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening: Less Liquidity, More Volatility

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has retraced a large amount of the previous rally into todays lows,
and now,
if wave (B) red is complete at the recent lows,
then it is time that this reversal pattern take hold in a more powerful way.

The price hit the 62% retracement level today and the declines seem to be stabilizing.
There is no sign yet that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is about to begin but the pattern is suggesting we see that happen soon.

Tomorrow;
The low at 0.9535 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin with a spike higher early tomorrow.
A break above parity over the next few sessions will signal wave (iii) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have switched to the alternate count for cable today and this now involves a larger three wave pattern higher into wave ‘A’ now underway.

The recent rally into the high at 1.1493 is in three waves and that completed wave [a] of ‘A’.
Wave [b] is now underway.
and this should trace out a higher low in three waves as shown.
If all goes well,
wave [b] will be complete by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to complete now in the territory of the previous wave ‘iv’.
and wave (b) should rise in three waves tomorrow to complete a lower high below 1.1493.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

There is still no sign that USDJPY is about to turn lower into a new down trend yet.
We have seen USDJPY create a triple top over the last month,
and that does suggest an exhaustion of the previous rally phase.
So I am still looking for that big turn lower to begin this seek.
There is a full pattern now in place for wave [v].
So I await that impulse wave lower to begin any day.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to show signs of a top with a sharp spike lower to begin wave (i).
A break of the previous wave (iv) lows at 143.50 will be that sign.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow has failed to break to a new low today as a sign that wave ‘iii’ is underway.
So far the recent double bottom is offering enough support to the market.
Now don’t get me wrong,
the action today has not been inspiring either!
So there is no indication that we are about to see a big rally in this market.

I can see a possible five wave pattern off the recent wave ‘ii’ high at 30465.
I have labelled this as wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’.
I was hoping wave ‘1’ would break to a new low to confirm the larger pattern,
but I am going to have to wait for that to happen in wave ‘3’ it seems.

The alternate count views this decline as wave ‘v’ of (i) of [iii].
So this count is calling for a short term low to occur in the next week,
and then a turn higher into wave (ii) over the following week.
We should know in the next few days how likely this count is.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ to form a bearish lower high below 30465.
If this count is correct,
then the next big move will be a major acceleration into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Its another bad day for gold and that has put pressure on the main count.
I was viewing this decline off last weeks highs as wave (iv) of [i].
The lows of the session today are holding just above the wave (i) high at 1663.
Last weeks count is invalidated when that level breaks,
but I have switched to the alternate count simply because the action merits a new perspective.

So now the decline into todays lows is wave [ii] green.
And the lows of wave [ii] are holding just above the 62% retracement level of wave [i].
So if we are going to see a turn higher into wave [iii],
now is the time for that to happen!

I will go so far as to say that if this decline does not stop tomorrow,
then I’m afraid I will have to rethink the bullish count again.

Tomorrow;
1615 must hold now at the wave (4) lows.
Wave [ii] has done enough to consider this correction complete.
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to push higher again in a five wave pattern.
A break of 1729 again will signal wave [iii] is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is dropping this evening with quite a sharp move.
I am holding with the idea that this is a beginning to wave ‘iv’ now,
and if so crude should complete wave ‘iv’ near 86.00 again this week.
The invalidation level for this short term count lies at 82.61 at the wave ‘i’ high,
so if the current decline breaks that high,
that will suggest wave [ii] is complete at the 92.68 high,
and wave [iii] down is about to kick off.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete a corrective decline towards 86.00 and for wave ‘v’ of (c) to turn higher before the end of the week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The market broke 3600 for a short while today and going by the current count,
that action was enough to call this wave (i) decline complete.
I was hoping to see a sharper move lower in wave ‘v’ to close out the trend channel near 3400 or so,
but I will have to wait and see if that is possible now in wave ‘v’.

The market may have hit the minimum target for wave ‘v’ of (i) today,
but it has not given any indication that this decline in wave ‘v’ of (i) is complete yet either.
only a break above the wave ‘iv’ high at 3806 will confirm that a low is in for wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Lets see if wave ‘v’ can take the market lower to close out the trend channel and complete a cleaner five wave pattern in wave (i) as suggested.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The further decline today have tipped the balance in favor of the alternate count tonight.
I was looking at this decline as wave (iv) of [c],
but the low at 19.93 broke again today and that ruled out a rally into wave (v) of [c].

Silver has only traced out a three wave decline so far which can be still viewed as a correction,
but the relative size of this correction compared to wave (ii) favors the idea that the rally is over now,
So that is what I am working with now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] green to build a five wave pattern lower as shown over the next few days.
If the price breaks the wave (i) high at 18.97 again,
that will pretty much confirm the top is in for wave ‘4’ and wave ‘5’ is underway.