Good evening to you folks,

God’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

the retracement in wave ‘ii’ came with a bang today!
And that same big fat spike lower repeated across all risk assets today.
The only winner today is the USD.
And that is not good news for the world economy.
A rush into the USD is a mirror image of a rush out of risk.
And that is the scenario that I see happening in the coming depression.

Tomorrow;
the decline into wave ‘ii’ has traced out three waves down.
to a higher low.
This pattern requires that the low at 98.63 hold firm from here on.
Todays fear trade does bring this count into question.

So the recen low must hold tomorrow if this count is to remain valid.
The price should return higher into wave ‘iii’ by the end of tomorrows trade.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable took the same hit today and that has put a hard top in place for wave [iv] green.
The decline has not made a new low yet,
so I have labelled todays drop as wave (i) of [iv].
I am allowing for a larger five wave pattern lower into wave [v] now possibly as low as 1.1200 to complete the pattern.
The minimum target for wave [v] lies at 1.1400.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) and (ii) to complete a lower high and then accelerate lower into wave (iii) of [v] by the end of this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Again USDJPY is the pair that I am having a major issue with.
The bearish count I am looking at can allow for a lower high in wave (ii) at todays top.
But the rally today is just too close for comfort now.
And I can nearly expect this pattern to be broken over the coming days unless something drastic happens.
If the top is broken at 145.00 again,
then I will have to completely rethink the large expanded flat correction in wave (4) that I am working with.

Tomorrow;
I am just going to have to wait and see if the price comes back into line with the main count tomorrow,
if not,
and the top breaks again.
Then it is back to the drawing board.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow turned right back down sharply today without threatening that 50% retracement level this morning.
This action completes wave (ii) pretty conclusively I think.

All the dominoes were lined up yesterday evening,
and today someone came in to tip them over!

The price has fallen back into the 31000 area this evening and that should be enough to complete wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
the next few days could bring a consolidation in wave ‘ii’.
Although I would hope that any correction higher will be kept to a minimum.
This wave ‘iii’ down has a whole lot of work to do,
so the less retracements, the better.

If we are on that cliff edge into wave (iii) of [iii] down,
then the next few weeks are going to get very rocky in the markets.
the overleveraged will be shaken out their complacency,
the economy will take a sharp turn lower,
and the initial bankruptcies in the financial sector will appear.

If this count is correct,
then I think the next rate hike will be the last rate hike for the fed,
but it won’t matter at all at that point though.
As the race for liquidity will be on.
And people will not be able to sell their financial assets quick enough.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to find a low nearby.
The market has reached the only band of support this evening.
Lets see if that will be enough to complete wave ‘i’ and allow wave ‘ii’ to begin a shallow correction higher.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays was an interesting day for sure.
Gold turned back into the main pattern today along with most of the other markets I follow.
I am a little concerned about this as gold should begin to break with following the fear trade as we approach the end of its pattern.
So I will have to keep an eye on that as we move along into wave (v) of [v].

So far we have a three wave decline into wave ‘a’ of ‘v’.
The price did break below the 1700 level at the lows,
so I am taking that as a big vote in favor of this pattern now.

Tomorrow;
I suspect wave ‘v’ will trace out a zigzag pattern much like wave ‘iii’.
That will give us an internal pattern of 5,3,5 in wave ‘v’.
So wave ‘a’ of ‘v’ should trace out five internal waves to complete.

Watch for wave ‘a’ of ‘v’ to complete five waves down in the area of 1685.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil did take a turn lower today but the fall is not big enough to convince me in favor of the main count to be honest.
I am on the fence here with this market,
torn between this main bearish count and the new alternate for wave ‘2’ as shown on the 4hr chart.

If the price does not return lower tomorrow and begin that long wave (iii) of [iii] that the count suggests,
then I will have to consider the alternate count more seriously.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] must begin over the coming few days in order for this count to remain valid.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Well I think we may have our answer now eh!
Todays action has vindicated the bearish count at least in the short term.

The S&P managed to make it up into the price band between the 50% and 62% retracement levels today.
And then immediately the market completely rejected that level with a wicked drop off.
Now I think we can say that wave ‘ii’ is done,
and if all goes to plan here,
wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should now get underway over the coming sessions.

Todays move lower has the potential to reverse the momentum and snowball as the pattern builds.
So I would like to see the retracements higher as small as possible,
and the downside moves make increasing progress lower.
This should work to accelerate the pattern to the downside in wave (iii) as I expect.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ to create a small lower high below the 4000 level over the coming sessions.
That will setup perfectly for a possible ‘crash’ type scenario in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has actually held on quite well today given the action across the rest of the markets.
The decline is in three waves as per wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
and as long as the price holds above 18.57 again at the wave (i) high,
then I think a rally up to the 21.00 area in wave [c] of ‘4’ is in play.
A break of that wave (i) high at 18.57 will invalidate this pattern.
and then I will look lower into wave ‘5’ earlier than expected.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete above 20.00.
Wave (iv) should then fall correctively into the end of the week.