Good evening to you folks,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Though the bubbles typically collapse in not one, but a series of capitulations – each punctuated by a “fast, furious, prone-to failure” recovery – my impression is that investors are about to get a quick introduction to why this chart is popular among market historians.

You are here – ‘return to normal’

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The rapid decline of the last few days seems to have come to a stop today.
And now there is an opportunity to build a higher low to begin wave (iii) up.
This bullish pattern relies on the low of wave (ii) holding above 0.9951,
so obviously that is the cut off point for my bullish stance here.

Monday;
I want to see the price turn higher into wave ‘i’ of (iii) by the end of the session on Monday.
A break above 1.02 again will signal wave ‘i’ is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is very close to breaking to a new low this evening as wave (iii) completes.
The support is holding at 1.1759,
but the low of the session came within 30 pips of a break.
I am not sure if wave (iii) is complete today,
or if we will make a new low to complete.
We will have to wait and see on Monday.

the next step for this pattern is for a series of corrections higher and new lows over the coming week to complete wave ‘5’ down.

Monday;
Wave [iii] should complete by midweek by breaking support and falling into 1.1700 again.
Watch for wave (iv) of [iii] correct higher in three waves first.
And then wave (v) down to create that new low.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has filled out the channel with a new high in wave [c] today.
The price came close to the 78.6% retracement level also,
now I do expect that wave ‘B’ is complete at todays highs.
So,
wave ‘C’ down is expected to follow early next week.
A break below the wave (iv) low at 134.00 again will signal wave [i] of ‘C’ is underway.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘B’ to halt this rally now and the initial reversal into wave ‘C’ to begin on Monday.
The highs at 139.40 must hold.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am sorry to say that I have nothing to report again today.
The action this week has been very subdued,
and there is just not enough of a decline to build any pattern off just yet.
I am happy to say that a decline has at least begun off the recent highs.
It remains to be seen if this develops into an impulsive pattern lower in wave ‘i’.
So that will remain the focus next week.

Monday;
The price is closing near the lows of the session now,
so I am hopeful that we can see some follow through action on Monday to help build the case for a topping pattern in wave (ii).
If wave ‘i’ is underway,
then I will expect a spike in the 3rd wave position of wave ‘i’ early next week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

There are a few different ways of labelling the current decline in gold,
and tonight’s chart shows an extension pattern lower in wave ‘iii’ of (v) as one option.
If this interpretation is correct,
then we will see wave ‘iii’ down make more progress to the downside on Monday as wave it traces out a five wave pattern.

The target for the alternate count lies at the 1739 high of wave ‘i’ alt.
If the price finds support there,
and then begins to track higher again early next week,
that will favor the alternate count quite well.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to trace out a five wave pattern lower and break the 1739 support to complete.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action in crude today was erratic and overlapping in nature.
I still count his as a corrective pattern in wave (ii) with todays highs taking the ‘c’ wave label.
The price again dropped off that new high in wave (ii) with a sharp spike lower.
I can’t confirm yet if this is wave ‘i’ of (iii),
but we should know by Monday evening if that turn is underway.

If wave (iii) is about to kick off here,
then next week will be a big down week for crude.
And wave (iii) will likely break below the 80.00 level again.
So this is an important moment for the crude oil pattern.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to fall back into the 85.00 area in five waves.
The high at 94.38 must hold.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is closing this evening at the lows of the session after another weak days action.
The price action has not given us anything to go on yet to confirm a topping pattern.
But I remain hopeful that wave ‘i’ down can begin next week
and we will see a break of that support at 4114 as an initial indicator of the new trend beginning.

Monday;
Only time will tell if the turn is in here.
I have annoyed you enough this week with my opinions on the trend change,
so I will close with this one line.
If this market is going to turn lower into a third wave down,
then now is the time to do it.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is getting very close to completing a corrective decline in wave [ii] now.
We have a pretty sharp decline this week,
but so far this decline can still be viewed as a correction in wave [ii].
Wave (c) of [ii] is tracing out a five wave pattern lower,
and the lows today should close out wave ‘iii’ of (c).
That leaves one more step lower in wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to complete the whole correction next week.

Monday;
Watch for wave (c) to complete near the 18.70 level at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.