Good evening to you folks,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight,

and welcome back to a new week.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has extended the declines today and now the main bullish count is being called into question again.
I know what you are thinking,
will this ever end already!

There is one bullish option left on the table tonight.
That is shown as the main count on the hourly chart.
In this scenario the correction in wave (ii) is an expanded flat pattern.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) is underway now and that wave should complete with a break of the wave ‘a’ low at 1.0096.

The alternate count is the same,
and if the price breaks 0.9951 again that will trigger the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete with a break of 1.0096.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is now moving in favor of that bearish count again after todays trade.

The price is now completing five waves down in wave (i),
with wave ‘v’ of (i) about to make a new low as I write.

I would expect to see a correction higher in wave (ii) starting tomorrow if this count is correct.
And then wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘5’ would be set to accelerate lower later in this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to find a low at the previous wave [i] low of 1.2000.
A three wave correction higher should not take much more than a day.
Later this week is looking like a critical point for this pattern.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has completed a three wave decline in wave (b) at todays lows.
the price has turned higher off that wave (b) low with a nice spike today.
I am suggesting that wave (c) is now underway.
and we should see a five wave pattern build in wave (c) to complete near 134.50 possibly by the end of the session tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete below 135.58 at the very upper end.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Well I am eating my own hat again today as this market is wandering higher again,
completely oblivious of the world around it.
But dare I say that is nothing new, but it is frustrating when the pattern is so convincing in this correction,
but the reversal remains illusive.

I will be forced to chew my tongue until this rally does let go and reverse lower in a meaningful manner.
I am hopeful that can happen this week.
And given the action in the crude oil price,
maybe that initial impulse wave lower can happen this week.

As I said,
I am sitting her chewing on my tongue until that happens,
so this will be a painful week it seems!

Tomorrow;
I have sown another internal labeling possibility for wave (a) tonight.
This pattern in wave (c) has now closed out the Elliott trend channel today,
add this to the other list of indicators of a top that I mentioned last week and I think we can still make a compelling argument of an impending turn lower.
We will see.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold made an early attempt to make progress into wave ‘iii’ today but the decline has stalled this evening.
So far we can only count three waves down off the top at wave (iv),
so there is no confirmation of the main pattern here yet,
but I can at least allow more time for that pattern to develop after todays action.

The alternate count can allow for more downside this week also.
Todays decline will complete wave ‘a’ of (ii) in that alternate count.
So I suspect wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ are yet to come and we can still see 1740 in wave (ii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to make more progress to the downside.
Wave ‘iii’ should at least break 1740.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil traded at levels not seen for 6 months today.
and that, I think, should be a warning signal for the world economy.
If demand is this bad for crude when there is ‘ no recession’,
imagine how bad it will get when we do admit that a recession is underway!

I am watching a possible bearish impulse wave build in waves (i) and (ii) now.
If this count is correct,
then we will see an acceleration lower build into wave [iii] this week.
In this scenario,
wave (ii) must complete below 94.38 at the wave [ii] high.
A break of that level will rule out the bearish count for wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete three waves up over the nesxt few sessions.
I am looking at the 92.40 level for this correction pattern to complete.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is showing a closed out Elliott channel also this evening.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ is tucking in underneath the upper channel line now.
As with the DOW,
this can be viewed as another box checked for a completed pattern in wave ‘c’ and wave (ii).

I am a man in limbo now until we see a reversal to the downside to call this rally complete in wave ‘c’.
And I am still looking at 4114 as the first signal level to break.
Until that happens,
I am just waiting patiently.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a rejection of that upper trend line and a decline below 4114 this week to begin the journey lower.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver shot lower today also and this decline is a good signal that wave [ii] is now underway.
I have labelled this as wave ‘a’ of (a) of [ii].
In this pattern,
wave [ii] will be a longer more complex affair.
This is the initial pattern that I will work with for wave [ii],
we will know more as the week goes on and wave [ii] develops.
We might get a more simple wave form in wave [ii] which will complete quicker than I have allowed at the moment.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to trace out three waves down and complete near 19.55 again.
Wave ‘b’ should form a small lower high tomorrow,
and then wave ‘c’ will turn lower again by Wednesday.