Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

David Rosenberg

In less than 2 months, the S&P 500 has gone from pricing in 60% recession odds to 30%. With the market multiple spiking almost 2-1/2 points to 17.5x, the “soft landing” view is now in the price. There’s a bull market all right — in hopes and prayers.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is still caught in a range below the 1.0290 level.
This is interesting in terms of the previous wave (iv) blue.
There is a chance that we are looking at a very strange contracting triangle for wave (iv) instead of the complex pattern I have shown.
If this triangle is correct,
then wave (iv) is complete and wave (v) should begin tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
As for the main count.
The wave ‘ii’ correction seems to be in control again today.
And in that case we will see a break of 1.0254 again before turning lower into wave ‘iii’.
I expect wave ‘iii’ should begin tomorrow either way.

Watch for a drop below 1.0122 to signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

There is no change tonight in cable as the pattern has failed to progress into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) yet.
The price is closing at the lows of the session,
but without a break of the recent lows at 1.2003 again we cannot confirm the pattern for wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
It is a waiting game for a confirmation move in cable.
That low at 1.20 is crucial.
And if this count is correct,
then we should see a pretty rapid decline towards 1.1760 over the net few days.

If wave ‘iii’ does not begin tomorrow then I will have to rethink this short term pattern again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave [c] continues higher towards the 62% retracement level today.
The tight action this week may well have formed a triangle wave (iv),
and that is the idea I am working with tonight.

This count requires one more pop above 135.58 again to complete five waves up in wave [c].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to complete with that final rally in wave (v) of [c] to complete the larger correction in wave ‘B’.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Not a whole lot to report tonight in the Stock market which is frustrating to be sure.
But I suppose I can only go where the market is going,
and the market is going nowhere at the moment!

The technical situation continues to worsen in terms of that momentum reversal,
and in terms of the rapidly rising complacency evident in that comment from David Rosenberg today.
So small traders are all in again,
and insiders are selling hand over fist.
Recession odds have halved since two months ago.
The larger corrective pattern is complete in wave [ii].
Momentum is reversing.
And on and on and on!

All that must happen now is for the actual price to follow the rest of the dominos that have fallen.

Tomorrow;
I am going to wait patiently until that initial drop below 31880 before labelling the decline out of wave [ii].
That will be the first signal line to indicate that wave [ii] is complete.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I will concentrate on the bullish alternate count this evening even though we do not have a break above 1804 yet.
That wave (i) low is the main indicator of a changing trend here.
So it is worth keeping both eyes on it this week.

If the alternate count is correct,
then we should see a completion of five waves up in wave (i) as shown pretty soon.
We may not even get a break of that 1804 low to complete wave (i).

If that does not happen,
then the next best thing to happen to help the bullish count is for wave (ii) to trace out a clear three wave correction.
And then form a bullish higher low above 1680.
That wave (ii) correction should begin this week and most likely by tomorrow evening.

Tomorrow;
Back to the main count.
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (v) to fall into the wave ‘a’ high at 1739.50 in five waves.
If that happens,
that will give a boost to the main count.
1804 must hold.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

We have three waves up and a small reversal spike lower off the high today.
That action suggests wave (iv) is done and wave (v) should begin.

There was a small break of the previous wave (i) low at 91.79 today,
and that has forced me to rethink the internal pattern of wave [i] now.
I have shown an extension in wave (iii) as a viable alternate count today.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to continue to race out five waves lower and complete near the 85.00 area again.

If we see a rally to break 92.00 again tomorrow,
that will signal that wave [ii] is already underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The price is holding within the perimeters of that arc again today.
The decline off the highs is nothing to write home about yet,
but there is hope that we are witnessing the end of that long correction in wave (ii) now.
I have shown the support levels that will give weight to idea of a reversal into wave (iii).
So I am going to wait until the price starts to take out those supports until I can really begin to make some predictions to the downside.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this initial decline today to build into a five wave pattern lower over the coming days.
Watch 4080,
the first support level that must go.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has not pushed into wave ‘v’ today yet.
But the pattern in wave (v) does require another spike higher to complete five waves up.
A break above 20.73 will be enough to complete this pattern in wave [i].
and then I will look lower again later in the week to begin wave [ii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete with a break of 20.73 and then we will see a correction lower begin into wave [ii].