Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I am updating early today as I have an engagement this evening. If there are any major changes later tonight I will no doubt do another chart update.

The evidence for a really rocky road in both the financial markets and world economy are piling on this week. No doubt you guys have seen much of these headlines.

Initial Jobless Claims At 5-Month Highs As Layoffs Accelerate

“Horror-Show” PMIs Send Euro Tumbling And Europe To Edge Of Recession

US PMIs Plunge To 2-Year Lows Amid “Remarkable Drop In Demand”

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EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

A drop off that suggested wave (iv) top today has increased the odd’s that wave (v) is underway.
But I will wait for a clear signal with a break of the low at 1.0444 again.
The pattern in wave (iv) is not ideal,
but until this count is proved wrong,
then I will have to work with it.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘i’ of (v) should fall and break 1.0444 to signal wave (v) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

A possible complex running flat may have completed at todays high in wave ‘ii’.
I now want to see a decline below 1.2161 again to signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to fall into the wave (b) low at 1.2040.
1.2323 must hold.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is reversing off that top today,
but the decline is too small yet to call a top in wave [v] of ‘5’ of (3).
I would like to see wave [i] of ‘A’ fall and break the low of wave [iv] at 131.48 again before getting too wedded to this new topping scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] down to continue lower and break the previous wave [iv] low at 131.48.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Ideal target area has not been hit yet in wave (ii).
The decline this evening is complicating matters slightly.
But I am now looking for a larger corrective pattern overall in wave (ii).
with todays drop being wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And wave ‘c’ is left to rally back to the 31100 area as suggested.

Tomorrow;
Only a large acceleration lower to break 29640 again will rule out this pattern for wave (ii).
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete near the 30000 level again before turning higher into wave ‘c’ again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is not getting a break this week at all.
Every day that the price fails to break higher into a third wave,
that is really a nail in the coffin for the bullish count.

The only reason that I have not switched to that alternate count yet is the fact that the low at 1804 continues to hold.
I am also keeping an eye on 1815 low.
That level will be a warning level for the overall bullish pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to find a low above 1815.
I am really pushing it now,
but I want to see an initial move higher into wave ‘iii’ of (i) by tomorrow evening.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action in crude is pretty weak today,
so I am reasonably confident that we are witnessing a corrective higher low in wave [b] of ‘2’ now.

The pattern in wave ‘2’ is still undecided,
but if the price completes wave [b] above the recent low at wave ‘1’,
then we can suggest wave ‘2’ is a flat correction,
and wave [c] will begin by Monday evening and then rally back towards 110.00 again.
A break of that low of wave ‘1’ at 101.00 will suggest an expanded flat correction in wave ‘2’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to hold above 101.00 and then spike higher to begin wave [c].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The progress in wave ‘ii’ has stalled out today,
without giving us a definite conclusion on what the end pattern for wave ‘ii’ will be.

There is a chance that wave ‘c’ is only getting started.
and that todays low is a second wave correction in wave ‘c’.

In that scenario wave ‘c’ will continue higher tomorrow and complete five waves up off the wave ‘b’ low.
I suspect wave ‘ii’ will complete with a break of the 50% retracement level if that idea is correct.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to break into that target range at 3840 before completing the pattern.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is getting very close to breaking out of the main count for wave ‘4’.
I have been looking for wave [c] of ‘4’ to continue higher this week,
but so far the action is moving closer to that alternate count day by day.
If we see a break of that wave [b] low at 20.90 again,
then I will switch to that alternate count for wave ‘4’ and ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to hold at 20.90 in order to save this main count.