Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The action in EURUSD is proving very difficult to nail down this week.
I am looking for a final five wave pattern lower to unfold in wave [v] green.
But the price has risen out of that target area this week,
and so far we have a refusal to complete wave (v) of [v] to the downside with a break of 1.0340.

I have not abandoned the main wave count today,
but, I am willing to consider another scenario for wave [iv] and [v] as a possible explanation.

There is a possibility that wave [iv] is still underway.
In this scenario last weeks low formed wave (b) of [iv].
and now wave (c) of [iv] will run higher to make a new high above 1.0786.
If the price breaks 1.07 again,
then I will switch to the alternate count for wave [iv].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) blue to top out now and then return lower early tomorrow.
A break of 1.0445 again will signal wave (v) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is pretty flat today hanging on around the 1.2260 level without giving up anything on where the price will move next.
My best guess is that todays high forms a wave ‘iii’ of (iii) lower high.
And the next move lower should be a little larger in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
This count will hold as long as the wave [iv] high at 1.2406 remains un broken.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to be confirmed with a break of 1.2160 again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

While the pattern in wave ‘5’ red has enough done internally to consider this wave complete.
Wave [v] has hit a new high above wave [iii] and the trend channel is getting close to full now.
The action today is corrective looking,
and that suggests another small push higher in wave [v] is needed to complete that wave.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [v] to push towards the upper channel line close to 138.00 to complete.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The trend channel surrounding wave (ii) is now filled
and we have a three wave pattern higher in place off that wave (i) low.
But;
Wave (ii) has not met either of the target levels that I mentioned yet.
That is wave ‘iv’ pink at 31.016,
or the 38% Fib retracement level at 31110.
I still favor the idea that wave (ii) reaches those levels before thinking about a reversal into wave (iii) down.
so I will be patient for another few sessions until I look for a turn again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete near that upper target level at 31110.
If we see a failure near that level,
then I will be looking for wave (iii) down to begin.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The ranging trade in gold is equally frustrating over the last week.
The price action has not confirmed a wave (i) rally yet,
or has it at least ruled out the bearish alternate count.

With that in mind I have to consider another possible count to explain this action better.
I am introducing this count for wave (ii) as a reasonable alternate this evening.

In this scenario we have a three wave pattern ongoing to the upside in wave (ii).
The corrective drift lower that occurred over the last few days is viewed as wave ‘b’,
with a rally into wave ‘c’ of (ii) now beginning.
this alternate pattern will top out with a break of 1858 again.
And then wave (iii) down will begin.

I have not ruled out the main bullish count yet,
but if we do not see a serious move higher by Friday,
Then I will have to consider this move higher as corrective rather than impulsive as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ up to continue higher and break above 1880 by the end of this week to confirm the bullish pattern here.
A failure below 1878 will favor the alternate count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Well we got another drop to a new low today as suggested.
and with that we now have five waves down off that recent wave (2) top.
That was a pretty rapid loss of $21 on the oil price,
and not much is being made of the price action in the headlines.
It seems like the previous narrative of endless inflation and higher oil prices is the only story that people want to hear.
I will tell you one thing that you can bank on,
a recession in the states will crash the oil price no doubt!
And if this short term count is correct,
then the oil market already knows about it.

Five waves down will lead to three waves up in wave ‘2’.
And todays bounce is labelled as wave [a] of ‘2’.
Wave [b] will form a higher low tomorrow,
and then wave [c] could even be completed by Fridays close at this rate.

A three wave correction higher in wave ‘2’ should target the previous fourth wave high at 110.00 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to form a corrective higher low above the wave ‘1’ low at 101.20.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave ‘ii’ is tracking higher again today and we seem to have a three wave pattern already in place now.
I don’t this this pattern is complete yet though,
and I continue to look towards that 3900 area again to complete this correction.
A little more patience is required to close out wave ‘ii’,
but I think we will see a top this week in that target band between 3840 and 3920 as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher to break into that target area to complete three waves up in wave ‘ii’.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver dropped to a new low in wave ‘c’ of (ii) today.
The decline in wave (ii) is getting to the point where it is close to breaking the bullish pattern completely.
And because of that my worries about the wave [c] pattern remain.

The price did pop off the low of wave (ii) this evening,
but I am not convinced this is the beginning of wave (iii) yet either.

So at this point we are stuck in a limbo between two counts.
another break of 20.90 again will favor the bearish idea that wave ‘5’ is already in play here.
I will stick with the main count for the moment though because it has not been ruled out yet.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold above 20.90.
A rally above 21.95 will favor the wave [c] count here.