Good evening to you folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q2 GDP Forecast To Zero Confirming Technical Recession.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is so close to breaking the support low at 1.0349 that it may well be inevitable now.
If the alternate count is going to be triggered,
then the recent high becomes wave [iv] of ‘C’.
and the decline over the last week becomes wave [v] of ‘C’.

Tomorrow;
I really don’t think there is much more ‘legs’ in this downtrend even if the low breaks.
We will see how this plays out tomorrow.
I am still firmly committed to the larger wave count here.
And I think a rally is on the way that will surprise many.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Wave [iv] is underway today and the initial rise off the low is labelled wave (a) of [iv].
The internal pattern of wave [iv] can subdivide in many different ways,
os I will have ot wait and see what pattern develops here.
A three wave correction higher will reach into the 1.2300 area.
And wave [iv] must hold below 1.2427 at the wave [i] low.
That gives a reasonable target range for a simple three wave correction higher.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [iv] to fall again to form a higher low as shown.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I am toying with the idea of a small impulsive wave now in place off the high at 1.3558.
There is a possibility that this sharp decline forming now is wave (iii) of [i].
If this count is correct,
then the decline will continue over the coming days and trace out five wave down as shown.
I am at the mercy of the pattern here,
until five waves down dies complete I cant make any predictions on the next developing wave.
So lets give this a little more time to see how we play out here.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

A 0.75% rise in the fed funds rate and the market rallies.
beats me how more expensive leverage is actually a good this for a leverage addicted economy and market.

The DOW is up off this weeks lows today but if this is a relief rally in a correction higher as suggested,
then the market will be back down pretty soon to a new low.
I have labelled todays rise as wave ‘iv’ of (i).
Wave ‘iv’ has a three wave pattern in place at todays high.
So a sharp drop tomorrow will signal wave ‘v’ is underway again.

A complete five waves down in wave (i) could break the 30000 level again if I am correct here.
If that happens,
then I suspect wave (ii) will wait until next week to get underway.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘vi’ has done enough to call that correction complete.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to complete as shown with a drop below the 30000 level again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

We have a small rally today which is at least allowing the bullish count to exist for another day.
But I have to face the fact that there is no guarantee that the bullish count will prevail here.
I have filled out the alternate count a little more tonight just in case.
This involves a three wave correction higher in wave (ii) today.

If the alternate count is correct,
then we will see another decline begin tomorrow in wave (iii) of [v].

Tomorrow;
A break of 1786 will trigger the alternate count.
so that level must hold.
Only a break of 1879 will confirm the bullish option here.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

We have further declines today which allows me to think a little more about the topping scenario again.
The price has broken down out of the rising wedge in wave ‘C’ also.
I would like to see a break of 110.00 again to really move the needle in favor of that wave [i] down scenario.
The one bug here is the lack of a five wave pattern lower off the top,
so I am waiting for that to be in place before jumping on the bearish bandwagon again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for further declines to build an impulsive pattern lower off the high in wave [i].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is fading the small rally today as we hit the closing 30mins tonight.
The reaction off the low seems corrective now,
so I have labelled this as a fourth wave correction higher in wave ‘i’ down.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ is left to complete five waves down in wave ‘i’ of (iii).

this pattern is lining up for another clearing rally next week in wave ‘ii’.
This next correction higher in wave ‘ii’ should not raise much hopes of a recovery.
I suspect wave ‘ii’ will be a smaller % retracement than the previous two corrective rallies in wave (ii) and wave [ii].
WAve [ii] failed below the 78.6% retracement level of wave [i].
Wave (ii) failed below the 50% fib of wave (i).
and the next wave ‘ii’ correction should target the 38% fib retracement if this trend continues.
So we are looking at a failure for wave ‘ii’ below 3900.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ of ‘i’ to complete.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ must then fall into the end of this weeks trade to complete five waves down below 3700 again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has spiked higher again today and now this rally looks like wave (iii) of [c] is underway.
Wave (iii) should top out close to 22.40 again.
And if this count is correct here,
then wave [c] will take us up towards 22.70 again over the next few days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to hold above 20.90 now for this count to remain valid.
Wave (iii) of [c] should complete five waves up this week.