Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I have copied some recent comments from Jeremy Grantham below that I think really put a pointer on the situation now.

‘impending doom’ were the words that really resonated with me the most!

This is the real McCoy. It seems to be playing out pretty close to 2000. The four great bubbles, are characterized by nearly hysterical behavior – accelerated price moves on the upside, and by a weird deviation, on the upside, between the blue chips going up and the risky stocks going down, and that is rare as hen’s teeth – it happened in 1929 and it happened during the year 2000 again, in spades, with the S&P ex-growth continuing to go up until September of 2000, and the growth stocks basically going down 50%, and the internet stocks dropping maybe 60-70% by then. So that was spectacular, and we saw a very handsome deviation between the S&P rising last year and the Russell dropping quite handsomely. I’ll tell you what it describes. It describes Mr. Prince’s ‘I’ve got to keep dancing, because the music is still playing.’ And we understand that completely, the enormous commercial imperative of the industry to play up to, and over the edge… That’s the phenomenon that causes this very rare indicator of impending doom. Impending doom – in other words now. We’re in it. I believe the declines will be very substantial.

– Jeremy Grantham, May 19, 2022

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD took another step lower today and the price has now broken the wave ‘a’ low at 1.06.40.
So the price has met the minimum target for an expanded flat correction in wave (iv) now.

I cannot rule out the alternate idea here either,
if the price drops again tomorrow to break 1.0563 again,
then I will have to switch to that wave [ii] idea.
Bu wave [iii] up should come along quicker than expected in that scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to hold above 1.0563.
Wave (v) will first create a higher low as shown in wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ by the end of this week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has dropped nicely today to re-affirm the main wave count in wave [b] green.
If this is wave (c) of [b] now underway.
then todays sharp move lower can be viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (c).
In this scenario wave (c) has more downside to go before we see any rally in wave [c] take place.
Wave [b] should find support on the lower end at 1.2329 or so,
that level marks the previous wave (b) low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower and trace out five waves down.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The USD received another shot in the arm today and has found renewed life in wave (ii).
The rally in wave ‘c’ has been so powerful that it is really calling into question the short term count now.
Todays highs have reached above the previous wave ‘iv’ high at 129.79.
And that level has not offered any resistance so far.
If we do not see a renewed decline to begin wave (iii) down tomorrow,
then I will be forced to rethink the larger wave count.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (ii) to top out now and then spike lower in wave ‘i’ of (iii).
The price must hold below 131.35.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The dow took a hit this afternoon but the price is recovering as we approach the close this evening.
There is a possibility that this new spike lower today is the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (i) of [iii].
But I will need to see a serious follow through to the downside again by Friday evening in order to confirm the short term count.
I am looking for wave (i) down to be substantially complete by the close of this weeks trade.
And if that happens,
then the pendulum swings towards my full bearish outlook,
and wave (iii) of [iii] will be back on the cards to begin next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to continue to develop a five wave pattern lower this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The low of the session today hit the 50% retracement level at 1828.33 as suggested.
And now we have a bounce this evening to suggest wave ‘i’ of (iii) is beginning.
The low at wave (ii) must hold at 1828.33,
and wave ‘i’ of (iii) is expected to push higher to break 1869 again by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to create another higher low over the coming days.
If this count is correct,
then we are looking for a large acceleration higher next week into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has created a lower high this evening and with that comes the possibility of a reversal into wave [i] as suggested.
Wave (ii) of [i] must hold at todays high.
And wave (iii) of [i] is expected to fall again for the rest of the week.
A five wave decline that breaks the previous wave [iv] low at 103 will really boost this wave count.
And then we really can look for a sustained decline in the larger wave (3) down over the summer months.

Tomorrow;
A break of 108.50 will take out the initial support.
Watch for wave (iii) down to fall in five waves and do just that.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Todays decline is welcome but not enough to confirm the bearish count just yet.
The decline today filled a trend channel off the high and then rebounded back off that level.

That action has opened up a possibility for an alternate count for wave ‘c’.
And in that scenario,
Three waves down in wave ‘4’ completed at todays low.
A rally in wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ is now underway with the initial target at 4247 at the 50% retracement level.

It really is a 50/50 break between both counts now,
so lets see which count the market chooses tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to continue to build a five wave pattern lower.
An break of the channel to the downside again will favor the main count.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has completed a possible expanded flat correction in wave [ii] this evening.
Wave [ii] has retraced 50% of that initial decline in wave [i].
And now we need to see a move lower again to begin wave [iii].
Wave [iii] will be confirmed with a break below 21.46 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave ‘4’ to hold at 22.43.
Wave (i) of [iii] should break the low of the week to begin a five wave acceleration lower into wave [iii].