Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

I was reading this article earlier and it was like singing off my own hymn sheet really, https://kayfabecapital.substack.com/p/an-optimistic-catastrophe?s=r

Some interesting points in this interview and worth a watch.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The price was progressing lower quite well this morning in wave (iv)
and then we got a spike higher to complicate matters!

There is still a good chance that this decline is part of wave ‘c’ of (iv) as shown,
but I do need to see that wave ‘b’ high at 1.0787 hold.
And wave ‘c’ to hit 1.0640 at a minimum.
that will complete an expanded flat correction in wave (iv) and wave (v) will begin from there.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue lower and hit that target at 1.0640 before the rally resumes in wave (v).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The last few sessions have traced out a sideways corrective pattern off that wave (b) high.
this is a little off the script for wave (c),
but at this point I don’t have a high probability alternate to explain the action better.
If the high at 1.2666 continues to hold tomorrow,
then wave (c) will turn lower as suggested.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to trace out a five wave pattern and fall into 1.2470 as shown.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave (ii) as hit the 50% retracement level today and there is a three wave pattern now in place.
There may be one more spike higher above 1.29 in order to complete five waves up in wave ‘c’,
but it is not absolutely necessary in my view.
If I am correct here,
then wave (i) and (ii) have now traced out a bearish impulsive wave lower off that recent high.
and the next big move should be an acceleration lower into wave (iii) to begin before the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin soon.
A break of the wave ‘b’ low at 128.86 will signal that wave ‘i’ is in force.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The decline off the top at wave [ii] is large enough to at least suspect that wave [ii] is complete.
The price did reach close to the 62% retracement level.
So far today we have a failure below that level and the market is holding at a lower high.
I am not convinced yet that the top for wave [ii] is in place,
but the initial signals are beginning to suggest that.
I want to see a clear five wave decline in wave (i) this week as shown.
And ideally that decline will retrace much of the rally in wave [ii].

And again we reach a critical pivot point in the pattern.
On the verge of a third wave acceleration lower.
Now I need to see some real progress lower to ignite the bearish case for the markets.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) to develop lower in a five wave pattern.
I want wave (i) to break that 32000 level again this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is dropping into the lower line of the channel slowly but surely today.
We are not quite there yet in this pattern,
but we are close to a complete pattern in wave (ii) now.
But I would like to see wave ‘c’ fall into the 50% retracement area at 1828 to complete this pattern.
If that happens,
then I will look for wave (iii) to begin.

Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) will complete over the next session or two,
so watch for signs of a bottom in place for wave (ii) near 1828 and then a spike higher to begin wave ‘i’ of (iii).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

It has been a pretty interesting days action in the crude oil market.
The ending diagonal pattern have been following has completed a full pattern at the highs.
Wave [5] traced out a clear three wave pattern.
And wave (c) of [5] traced out a clear five wave internal pattern.

Then today we have a nice sharp spike lower to signal the recent pattern is complete.
It is a little early to get excited here,
but a five wave decline in wave [i] this week will be just what the doctor ordered to end this recent rally.
I am looking at the previous fourth wave low at 103 as good target for wave [i].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) and (ii) to create a lower high to begin wave [i] down.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

After wave ‘c’ reached to the 162% extension level of wave ‘a’ in the premarket yesterday,
today we have a reasonable move lower again off that high in place.

Wave (ii) has corrected half way between the 38.2 and 50% retracement levels at that recent high,
and now we have the market holding at a lower high this evening.
The action off that wave (ii) high is not a clear five wave pattern as I would like,
so this pattern is not settled yet.
But if we do see a sharp move lower this week that does trace out five wave down,
that is the signal to begin wave (iii) of [iii] that I am looking for.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at the recent high.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) down should continue lower this week and I want to see 4000 break again to really favor the wave ‘i’ of (iii) count.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is showing all the rights signals that the turn is in for wave ‘5’ down.
We have a five wave decline into wave (i).
And now the price is consolidating around that low this evening.
I have suggested another small rally in wave ‘c’ of (ii) for tomorrow,
which will complete a clear three wave correction,
but this is not required and may not happen – we will see.

If this pattern is correct,
then wave (iii) of [i] of ‘5’ will accelerate lower by the end of this weeks trade.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a corrective lower high.
And wave (iii) down may even begin by tomorrow evening.
I am watching that 21.27 low as a signal that wave (iii) down is underway.