Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The short term pattern for wave ‘iv’ seems to have flipped today.
The general range contraction is still visible as per a normal triangle.
But there are too many internal waves to stay with last nights count.
So it seems wave wave ‘iv’ is tracing out a complex correction higher.
and the triangle wave ‘b’ of ‘iv’ as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher tomorrow to break 1.0640 at a minimum.
I expect wave ‘v’ down will have to wait until next week if this count holds for wave ‘iv’.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I got ahead of myself yesterday thinking that a turn higher into wave (a) had begun.
The action today does not support that.
In fact the price is just above to break to a new low on the week.

It is interesting how a record inflation number in the US – leads a rally in the USD??
Surely inflation is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency??
forgive me for asking a rational question off an irrational market!

Tomorrow;
I have labelled five waves down in wave ‘v’ of (v) this evening.
And a break of the low at 1.2260 will complete that pattern.
Lets see if we get another spike rally off that new low before the end of the week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I suspect the USDFX market is quiet today because of the expectation of the cpi numbers tomorrow.
We will see if the knee jerk reactions will go in line with the wave counts,
and continue to fall as I expect,
or if they return to a USD rally again.

There is a possible lower high building in USDJPY today,
and I will take a gamble at suggesting a third wave down beginning tomorrow in this scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop into a third wave down off a corrective lower high.
A break of 128.61 will be a good signal of the long expected reversal.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Another day and another new low and a small lower high also.
The wave ‘ii’ high at 32752 did not break today,
and with that we have a possible open door to drop now into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
The small lower high today may be an impulse wave to begin that next leg down.

In general the action this week has been very messy indeed.
The pattern in wave ‘ii’ is not ideal at all.
And I cant shake the idea that we could see a larger rally in wave ‘ii’ as per the alternate count.
So just keep that in mind.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 32752 again.
Wave ‘iii’ down must begin to accelerate lower in order to confirm this bearish wave count.
I want to see wave ‘iii’ of (iii) drop into the 31.090 level where wave (iii) and (i) reach equality.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I am close to getting short term bullish on Gold now after this weeks low came within a $14 margin of the target low for wave [ii].
There is no confirmation that the final low is in here yet,
but we do have a small impulsive looking spike off 1832.
So I have shown a possible path for wave ‘i’ up.
A break above that fourth wave high at 1909 again will be something to sit up and pay attention to.
And if we do see a bullish higher low next week,
then I might start jumping about a bit more!

Tomorrow;
Watch for a steady move higher over the next few sessions to trace out five waves up as shown.
A break of 1832 will put a pause on this count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has rallied more than expected today and that does open up another possibility for the wave (2) count.
Wave ‘C’ of (2) may be tracing out a three wave rally higher to form a complex correction overall.
At the moment it is the best fit pattern for the wave (2) idea here.

In that case,
the low at 97.30 will hold as wave [b] of ‘C’
and wave [c] of ‘C’ will track higher over the coming days and complete a five wave rally to break above the 116.30 level again.

the alternate count for wave ‘2’ is still viable.
And only a break of 110.40 again will rule that out.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold above 97.30.
Wave (iii) could begin by Friday.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is basically flat today and the action today has not given us much to go on really.
Wave ‘ii’ is now viewed as an expanded flat correction.
The price did make a very slight new low today,
and I am looking at that low as wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’ now.
This should lead to a rally into wave ‘c’ tomorrow and a break of 4070 at a minimum.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to carry higher to at least 4070.
If the market fails to break that level tomorrow,
then wave ‘iii’ down may have already started at todays new low.
I will have to wait and see on that.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver did trace out a three wave rally into wave (a) today and this is enough to start tracking wave [iv] higher now.
The price is off the session high this evening.
And I am looking for a three wave decline into wave (b) tomorrow,
wave (b) does not have to hold above 21.16,
but that it will simplify the matter if it does!

Wave (c) of [iv] could start on Friday if all goes well.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [iv] to trace out a three wave decline to a higher low above 21.16.