Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Here’s the deal,

I know I am a serious perma-bear, and I will gladly print that label on my forehead.

But I do have this contrarian side to me that is drawn to the third article linked below. Now I have not changed my stance at all, but I do think it is worth while keeping an eye out for a clearing rally coming our way soon.

The recession and bear market is still rolling in, but as you know, the biggest rallies happen in bear markets! Just a small FYI here!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-head-us-trading-i-havent-seen-investors-bearish-2008

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-were-our-own-now-without-fed-safety-net-its-sobering-reality

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investor-sentiment-so-bearish-its-bullish

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am looking at a possible triangle for wave ‘iv’ of (v) tonight.
The action has been displaying the traits of this pattern over the last few days.
And todays trade has been relatively quiet,
suggesting that the triangle is very nearly done here.

Tomorrow;
The price must break below 1.0471 at the minimum target for wave ‘v’,
but I think a break of 1.0496 will signal the triangle is over and wave ‘v’ is underway.
1.0591 must hold for this pattern to remain valid.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

We do have a very small impulsive looking higher low now in place above 1.2260.
the correction has retraced quite deep into that initial spoke higher.
And now I am looking for at least a three wave move higher in wave ‘a’ of (a) after todays trade.

Tomorrow;
A break of 1.2406 will signal wave ‘a’ is underway.
I know that this pattern is very much a case of catching a falling knife here,
but 1.2260 must hold for this pattern to remain valid.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I suspect the USDFX market is quiet today because of the expectation of the cpi numbers tomorrow.
We will see if the knee jerk reactions will go in line with the wave counts,
and continue to fall as I expect,
or if they return to a USD rally again.

There is a possible lower high building in USDJPY today,
and I will take a gamble at suggesting a third wave down beginning tomorrow in this scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop into a third wave down off a corrective lower high.
A break of 128.61 will be a good signal of the long expected reversal.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Ok,
I will be honest and blunt all in one here.
I have a hard time believing that wave ‘ii’ is complete at todays spike high.

The action over the last few sessions is just convoluted and indecisive and there is no standard pattern that will fit this action correctly.
The best fit pattern for wave ‘ii’ is a running flat right now,
but even that pattern does not have a correct ‘look’ about it!

I suppose this may be resolved over the next few days if we see a larger wave ‘ii’ tracks higher in three waves towards the 33200 area again.
But I am just going to have to wait and see if the pattern clears up tomorrow,
and maybe then I will have a more coherent view on the matter!

Tomorrow;
In saying all that,
We could see a real acceleration lower begin tomorrow into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
so I will not rule that out yet.

Just watch that alternate wave ‘ii’ idea,
that correction must complete below 34120 at wave (ii).

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I will go out on a limb here and say that there is a five wave pattern in place for wave ‘v’ now,
I still favor the 1818 low as a target for wave (c),
but the pattern has done enough now to begin looking for a reversal pattern higher to kick off a possible wave [iii] rally.

If this pattern is correct,
then we will probably see a rally above 1909 again,
and then a corrective higher low build in a second wave over the next few sessions.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a final low in wave ‘v’ of (c) in the area of 1820.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil has traced out a five wave pattern lower in wave (iii) at todays lows.
In terms of this new pattern I am tracking here,
I would prefer to see a break of 95.10 again to confirm this pattern,
but that may well happen soon to complete wave (iii).
The wave (i) at 105.56 low must hold for this pattern to remain valid now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete near the wave (b) low at 95.10.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am going to allow for a larger retracement in wave ‘ii’ here tonight,
as the action today is not exactly convincing as the beginning of a third wave down.
We could see a run back up to the 4150 level in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ in an expanded flat correction.
but a minimum target for wave ‘c’ lies at 4069 at the wave ‘a’ high.
So there is room for some more upside if this count is correct.

I have to remain open to the idea that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will start soon also,
so if we see a failure below 4069 tomorrow and an acceleration lower to break 3950 again,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete above 4069 by tomorrow evening.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

It has taken a long time to happen,
and I did doubt the pattern in wave [2] numerous times over the last while,
but silver has finally broken to a new 18mth low in wave (C) of [2] with a break of 21.40 today.
Now my longer term target at 19.00 does not seem so out of this world!
A few more days of this type of selloff and we will be there.

Now that the back is broken of this wave (C) decline I can taste the end of the correction coming our way.

The further down we go,
and the close that lower trend channel line is,
the more bullish you will see me become!

Tomorrow;
The internal pattern in wave (v) is close to complete now.
So we should find a low soon in wave [iii] of ‘3’.
I am looking for a correction higher in wave [iv] to begin by the end of this week.

Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) of [iii] to complete tomorrow.