Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Three waves up into a trend channel completed at last nights highs in wave ‘iv’ as expected.
The decline today was just as knee-jerk as the rally yesterday,
but if this is wave ‘v’ of (v) as shown on the hourly chart,
then we should expect at least a break of the wave ‘iii’ low at 1.0471 to complete wave ‘v’.
After that,
we have a completed pattern,
and I can look for a reversal off the lows again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave v’ to break the wave ‘iii’ low at 1.0471.
1.0641 then becomes the next level to watch.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Take a look at the 4hr chart first.
We have a running flat wave (iv),
followed by a five wave pattern lower in wave (v).
This should complete wave [iii] finally!

I know the pattern in cable was looking more bullish earlier this week.
But all we actually managed was a three wave rally into a fourth wave as shown.
That does knock back the expected rally into wave ‘4’ by a week or so,
but that is still my base case scenario here.

Tomorrow;
If wave ‘v’ of (v) is now done,
then we should expect a low to form in wave [iii] very soon.

I have to put back on my safety hat again here!

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is just a mirror tonight.
The decline off the recent top only managed a three wave pattern.
And I can only revert to a larger wave ‘iv’ of (v) correction here.
The rally today is impulsive looking,
therefore it is most likely a fifth wave now underway.
This should break above 1.3125 to complete.
And then I am again forced to wait for a larger reversal to build from here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to keep on pushing to at least break that previous high.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I think I will move the main wave count up by one degree tomorrow in order to try and capture the action a little better from here on.

Three waves up into wave ‘ii’ did prove to be the best fit pattern today.
And now we have an equally ridiculous decline off that wave ‘ii’ top.
I mentioned that 33000 level as an indication that wave ‘iii’ had begun,
and today,
the market broke that level and the wave ‘b’ triangle low.
Wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ is now underway,
so a break below 32450 is on the cards again next week, if not tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ to form another bearish lower high to begin a longer decline in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) next week.
The wave ‘ii’ high now becomes key resistance to this overall bearish pattern.
The market really should not break that level again if wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is about to get underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I dont know if this fact has clicked with people yet,
but gold is moving in lockstep with the market these days.
And therefore I am a little concerned with the idea of a large waterfall move lower in stocks as the pattern suggests.
That could easily spill over into the metals as it did today.
Only that sort of volatility could break the long term bullish pattern in gold.

the long term key support for gold lies at 1780,
if that level breaks,
then all bets are off until we see 1600 again to complete a larger fourth wave correction.

Tomorrow;
I am getting ahead of myself a little this evening,
but the thought came to me so I’d better say it while I can.
For now the bullish count is intact.
And wave (c) will come to a close soon enough.
Lets see if wave ‘v’ can break 1850 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

After todays sharp drop off I am forced to re-instate the alternate count for wave [ii] again.
I am really clutching at straws to fit the recent action into a third wave run higher in wave (iii).
There is a lot of overlap internally now.
So the balance of probabilities is shifting a little back towards that alternate count again.

The main count is still valid for the moment at least,
but if we get another down day like that tomorrow,
especially if we see a break below the 99.00 level again that will break the bullish pattern in wave [c] of ‘2’.
and I will have to switch to the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ to hold at 105.07.
Wave ‘iii’ must push higher again to save this bullish count.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has retraced all of last nights wild rally with ease today.
And the fact is,
this action is very favorable to the worst of bearish wave counts now
that it is hard to overstate how serious this point is for stocks.
If we are staring at wave (iii) of [iii] down now beginning,
then the next few weeks are going to painful indeed for this market.

Todays decline is labelled wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
I would like to see wave ‘i’ break the larger wave (i) low at 4063 before completing.
And that can happen tomorrow easily.

If wave (iii) is now underway,
then the initial target level for wave (iii) lies at 3730 where wave (i) and (iii) reach equality.
That is one to keep an eye on next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to drop into the 4060 level to complete.
The market must hold below 4308 at the wave (ii) high from here on.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

It is really a case of easy come easy go today!

Yesterdays rally is now gone.
And that is how quick an algorithm can ruin a market!

The pattern in wave (iv) is solid now and I am looking at the possibility that wave (v) of [iii] is now underway.
There is more downside coming in wave (v) if this count is correct.
At a minimum we should see a break of 22.11.
But I suspect that wave (v) of [iii] can break 21.40 before it finds a low.
That level marks the extreme low of this whole corrective process in wave [2].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) to continue lower in a five wave pattern with a minimum target at 22.11.