Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I opened last nights update with a short comment on the weekly chart,
and then I forgot to include the weekly chart in the update!
So you will have to forgive me for that,
it is included tonight!

AS for todays action in EURUSD,
there was very little to point to a third wave rally as I am hoping for.
For the moment,
as long as the price holds above 1.0472 then I can at least hope for a reversal to build into wave (i).

the alternate idea for this sideways action is a possible triangle wave ‘iv’ of (v).
A break below the lower line of the triangle will signal wave (v) is extending again to the downside.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to hold above 1.0472 again.
If we see a rally above 1.0594 again that will favor the main count in wave ‘iii’ of (i).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is holding a second higher low above wave ‘ii’ this evening.
If that wave ‘ii’ low at 1.2472 continues to hold tomorrow,
that will favor the bullish outlook for sure.
I do want to see a rally above 1.2616 to secure the wave ‘iii’ count this week.

Tomorrow;
We are in a very similar situation in cable as with EURUSD,
looking for that illusive turn higher for at least the next few weeks into a fourth wave.
The initial setup is good,
but wave ‘iii’ need to get underway now to seal the deal here.

Watch for wave ‘iii’ to push above 1.2616.
1.2411 must hold.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Going on the action over the last few sessions here,
it seems very likely that wave ‘ii’ is still in force in USDJPY.
The price must continue to hold below 131.25.
I am allowing for a bigger correction higher into the wave ‘ii’ high as shown.
That should happen overnight ideally,
but we will see early tomorrow if there is any reaction lower to signal a third wave decline nis beginning.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to to grind higher for another session but hold below 131.25.
A break of 129.30 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Are we looking at a possible three wave pattern higher into the session high this evening?
Well it is a real possibility for sure.
The rise today was less that we saw last night off the low,
so much of that momentum was used up at the close last night.
We do have three waves up in place.
Now comes the test.
A third wave decline into wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ must turn lower and challenge the lows of wave ‘1’ at 32450 tomorrow.
A break of that level will favor the wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ count.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘ii’ must hold at 34065.
Wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ must begin an extended decline to into the 31600 area where wave (iii) will equal wave (i)in length.
That should only be the center part of wave (iii) taken care of.

Tomorrows trade is going to be important for this short term wave count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold just about met the 1850 target yesterday and bounced back into todays highs again.
To be honest,
the recovery is less than convincing at the moment.
And I am still open to the idea of wave (c) reaching equality with wave (a) near that 1818 handle again.
1850 is a round number psychological target and the rebound off that level may well be a reaction to that.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to fall back below 1850 again and draw near to that lower 1818 level.
If that larger wave [ii] count is correct,
then we are close to that final low now.
So this week could be enough to complete that correction and turn the market higher again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is continuing to show that range contraction on the short term chart.
If this action turns out to be a large degree triangle correction in wave ‘4’ as shown on the 4hr chart,
then we will see another new high to break 128.00 over the coming months in a fifth wave rally.
We can mark this as the alternate count for now.

AS for the main count on the hourly chart.
The price did correct lower again today and I have labelled this as wave ‘1 and ‘2’ of ‘iii’.
The lead time for this wave (iii) rally is starting to draw out my suspicions now.
As a normal third wave rally should be a far more straight forward affair.
Rather than the endless higher lows that we are witnessing here.

At the moment,
It is a case of running with this idea until I am proved wrong.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 99.62.
A break of that level will not favor the short term count.

105.13 is now an important level for this bullish count.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) of [c] is underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is showing a three wave pattern higher also today.
The market reached back above 4200 again at the session high,
that marks a 50% retracement of the wave ‘1’ decline.
Although there is no indication that wave ‘3’ down is underway yet.

If we do see a drop begin again tomorrow to break 4060,
then we have a real chance that of that waterfall moment in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) which I have been speaking about.

I think wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ should break the 3900 level at a minimum
to allow enough room for any correction in wave ‘4’ to hold below the wave ‘1’ low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to complete below 4300.
A decline into wave ‘3’ should begin tomorrow if this short term count is correct.
A break of 4060 again will rule out the alternate count for wave (i) and (ii).

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is holding the line above 22.11 at the wave (iii) low today.
I am reasonably confident that this current move higher part of a correction in wave (iv) now.
And silver will push above 23.00 again in wave ‘c’ to complete wave (iv) this week.

Once we see a three wave correction higher in place off the lows of 22.11.
Then wave (v) should take over and turn lower again by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 22.11.
A break above 22.84 again will signal wave ‘c’ is underway.