Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Another little number from David Rosenberg, worth a watch.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We there is enough counter evidence today that I simply cannot continue with a bullish view of this weeks action.
I have taken another look at the overall wave form in wave [v],
and I think we can make sense of this latest move in that light.
I have shown a double extension within wave (iii) of [v].
And with that count we get an explanation for the corrective move this week as wave (iv) of [v].
The sharp drop off wave (iv) is also explained by this count as wave (v) of [v] again.

Monday;
EURUSD must hold above 1.0635 again for the larger wave count to remain valid.
So that level is again important as wave (v) of [v] completes.
I think we are stretched to the maximum here in wave (D) now,
so I want the reversal into wave (E) to begin next week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable dropped sharply out of the pattern today.
and with that we have a new wave (iv) triangle in place.
the internal action of the triangle is not ideal,
but at this moment,
the triangle is the best fit pattern here.

Certainly the sharp drop today is in line with a fifth wave decline.
Overall the internal pattern in wave [c] has reached a conclusion again.
And next week I am definitely looking for the price to turn higher again.

Monday;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] of ‘4’ to complete early next week.
Wave (iv) now marks the reversal trigger line as rally above 1.3090 again will signal that wave ‘4’ is done.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The counter action in USDJPY today has almost brought this count into invalidation also today.
But so far the price has held below 1.2940,
and as long as this level holds,
then I do think that a sharp drop into wave (iii) is likely now.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to drop back below 1.2746 again to signal wave (iii) of [a] is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow has retraced back below the triangle low of wave ‘4’ today.
And now the lower bounds of the triangle pattern at 34100 is vulnerable.
It may even break before the end of the session today.
This action is quite favorable to the idea that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway here.
but as with any impulsive count,
five waves down is key next week.

As you can see from the hourly chart,
I am not looking for a total retracement of wave ‘c’ with this wave ‘i’ decline.
Simply because wave ‘c’ of (ii) was so extended in nature.
But I would like to see a break of 33500,
which marks a 62% retracement of the wave ‘c’ rally.

Monday;#
Watch for a five wave decline in wave ‘i’ to hit 33500 at a minimum.
Next week I will be looking for a break of support at 32230 again to signal wave (iii) if [iii] is underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I am not quite sure if wave ‘ii’ is done at the session high today.
It seems a little shallow for a proper second wave retracement.
If that 1955 level holds and the price continues lower then the count is spot on,
and wave ‘iii’ is underway.

for the moment just keep in mind that there is a possibility that wave ‘ii’ can retrace higher into the 1970 area as an alternate.

Monday;
Watch for an early drop into wave ‘iii’ to confirm this count.
Wave ‘iii’ should hit 1890 before correcting higher in wave ‘iv’ again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Sometimes we reach a point in a pattern where the main pattern and the alternate actually mirror each other.
This is one of those times.
Where the alternate count actually allows for a slight new high,
but a third wave decline to follow next week.
We will see soon enough if this count is correct.

Crude has moved pretty correctively today and as such I am allowing for a larger wave ‘b’ and wave (ii) now.
If this is correct we will see a new high in wave ‘b’ at 106 or so,
and then a drop into wave ‘c’ towards 98.50 again to complete wave (ii).
And then later next week a rally into wave (iii).

And now you see the mirror effect going on here.
Wave (iii) down,
or wave (iii) up,
that is the point we sit at.

Monday;
A break of 109.20 will confirm the main count.
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete by Monday evening.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Well todays action is a pretty good indicator of the road we are on here.
If the pattern is moving into a third of a third wave down over the next week,
then we should see an even more extreme acceleration lower as wave (iii) progresses.

I have switched to the alternate wave (ii) high today.
And todays sharp decline is now viewed as wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii].
and you can see from this count,
there is a real waterfall moment ahead of us in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].
And that wave could break the 4000 level again before completing.
So the stakes are high now in the stock market!

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete and a corrective move higher in wave ‘ii’ to begin.
Depending on how wave ‘ii’ pans out,
we are probably looking at later next week for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to get going.

Wave (ii) must hold at 4512.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

What a reversal silver has undergone this week.
The move lower has forced me to up the degree of the wave count but there is no change in the structure.

Wave [i] of ‘3’ of (C) is now well in force here,
and even wave [i] has achieved more than I thought it would!
We do have a ways to go here before hitting a final low in wave ‘C’ of [2] to complete this overall correction.
So it seems the bad times are not quite done for the precious metals markets yet.

Monday;
Next weeks trade is important as it will set us up for a third wave decline if the correction in wave [ii] goes well.

Watch for wave [i] to complete soon as we are hitting support within the previous structure at wave ‘1’.
Wave [ii] is expected to track higher in three waves into the 25.00 handle.

Things are getting a little hairy in the markets in general,
so we may not see a normal retracement in wave [ii].
If the market enters a panic mode,
Which I think it has the potential to do next week.

then everything will sell,
metals, bitcoin, stocks, corporate bonds etc.
and Treasury bonds will get a major bid in this scenario.

This does go against my real money convictions at heart!
but the market is beginning to look favorable towards the 10yr treasury now.
And There is a big rally coming there soon I expect.